Green Bay Packers Named No. 9 Defense Despite Better Metrics, Analyst Suspects Regression Could Be Coming

At the same time, there are genuine questions about the group’s ceiling. Was last season the floor or a luck-inflated misrepresentation? While both Kimes and Foxworth rank the Packers ninth, the latter, an ex-NFL cornerback, has some misgivings about whether this unit is legitimate.

“I don’t really understand why they’re good. They have a lot of sacks despite not having a ton of pressure, which feels like it could be a little fluky,” Foxworth says.

Kimes notes that the Packers finished fourth in EPA per play (Expected Points Added) but 20th in success rate. This discrepancy invites questions about whether they’re “fundamentally sound.” Despite this uncertainty, she remains high on the unit moving forward.

Xavier McKinney Could Be Green Bay Packers’ Cheat Code

“Two things made me not terribly concerned,” Kimes says. “One of those things was narrowing it to the second half of the season, where suddenly they were fourth in success rate.” This shift eliminates some of the potential flukiness.

“The other thing that changed my mind was just watching Xavier McKinney’s interceptions. Yes, interceptions and turnovers can be fluky and a source of regression, but some players are just better at it than others. And he was unbelievable.”

McKinney’s 8 INTS led the NFC as he menaced the middle of the field. “He’s got incredible eyes, incredible range,” Kimes marvels. “I’m not saying he’s going to do it again…but I didn’t come away with the feeling that this is a defense that just got lucky.”

Both analysts admire how defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley came in and commanded the unit in year one. “I guess I’m a Jeff Hafley guy now,” says Foxworth, following his initial doubts about the former Boston College coach.

He doesn’t necessarily agree with Kimes’ stance on the turnovers, though. “That’s why they’re at nine for me and not higher,” Foxworth says, despite their advanced rankings in most metrics. He’s also wary of being overconfident in Green Bay’s defense in general.

I feel like the story of the Packers defense for so many recent seasons has been a really talented defense that I thought would be good but never quite was as good. And it’s funny now that I look at their roster, I’m like, ‘Eh, Rashan Gary?’ Not super talented, but they were really good last year. I think nine is a good spot for them, it’s still in the upper third, but they’re not going to win a bunch of games because of their defense.

For Kimes, it’s the balance of offense and defense that will be a strength for Green Bay next season. “It’s complementary football. I think we’re both high on their offense as well. They’re not going to be put in super adverse situations.”

Even if the defense regresses in the turnover department, organic overall growth could compensate. For such a young team, a high defensive floor is an encouraging luxury.