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Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Football! Let's nail this five-way SGP for 'TNF' to open NFL Week 1

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/7/23

The wait is over! Who needs an intro, it's time to hammer a Same Game Parlay for "Thursday Night Football." Make sure you check all your sportsbook apps for promotions on these "island" games. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering sweat-free SGPs this week, and that is always worth taking advantage of.

We'll be going to DraftKings for this one. We are getting three separate $10 risk-free SGPs to be used for Thursday, Sunday and Monday, so it's only responsible we uncork a winner on opening night.

SGP to get our NFL season started right

With such a high total tonight, the expectation is fireworks, and it's easy to understand why. Both offenses have firepower, and both defenses leave a bit to be desired. Both Detroit and Kansas City were among some of the league's best at scoring in the red zone last year. Tonight's SGP consists of five legs, getting us to +1500 on DK.

First leg: David Montgomery 40+ rushing yards

David Montgomery comes to Detroit on a three-year contract, and he should have a significant role in this offense alongside pass-catching back Jahmyr Gibbs. It would be wise for the Lions if they look to establish the run here and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands, and they should be able to do so here. Chris Jones, Kansas City's All-Pro DT, is holding out. That leaves a gaping hole along this defensive line, and Montgomery and this elite offensive line should open plenty of lanes tonight.

Montgomery averaged 50.1 rushing yards per game last season, going for 40+ nine times.

Second leg: Montgomery TD

Let's double-dip on Montgomery having a solid Lions debut tonight. Detroit tended to run when they got near the goal line last year. Jamaal Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns last season, and that's the role Montgomery figures to inherit. Should Detroit move the football, expect to see Montgomery getting the goal-line carries.

Third leg: Isiah Pacheco 45+ rushing yards

We stick with the running backs here and look over to the Kansas City side with Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is shaping up to be the lead back in this offense, taking 37 carries last postseason to Jerick McKinnon's 19, averaging 5.3 yards per carry along the way.

Last season, Detroit allowed 5.2 yards per carry, the third-highest mark in the league. Advanced rankings such as DVOA and PFF's Rush Defense grades both put the Lions as a bottom-10 unit from 2022. Kansas City should find some success on the ground here.

In Pacheco's final 12 games last year, he went over this 45+ line 10 times, with the lowest total among those games being 58 yards. He averaged 69.2 yards per game during that 12-game stretch, and we're asking for only 45 tonight.

Fourth leg: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 45+ receiving yards

Now is when we bring the juice to this SGP, opting to bet on Chiefs' WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to have himself a night.

The Lions significantly overhauled their secondary this offseason, and for good reason. No team allowed more explosive plays through the air than Detroit last season. The new faces could suggest a tighter defense to these long passes, but it may take a few weeks for these pieces to gel.

When you look at metrics such as average depth of target (aDOT), yards/catch and 20+ yard catches, MVS is squarely one of the most explosive wide receivers in the game. 27.6% of his targets last year traveled 20+ yards down the field, the third-highest mark among qualifying wide receivers.

MVS should be there to take the top off the defense, and he could hit this leg on just one catch.

Fifth leg: Valdes-Scantling TD

Here's to a massive touchdown for Mahomes' deep threat. With Travis Kelce questionable, Valdes-Scantling's role should be more prevalent with or without their star TE.

$10 risk-free bet: +1500 DraftKings

Let's start this year right!

In the news ...

Nick Bosa signs record-breaking contract, ends holdout — Niners fans can breathe a sigh of relief, their star edge-rusher is back. After holding out this summer, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa signed a record-breaking deal, agreeing to terms on a five-year, $170M contract with $122.5M guaranteed. Now, San Francisco can move forward and get ready for what actually projects to be a tough Week 1 game against Pittsburgh. The Niners are 2.5-point road favorites against the Steelers, and Bosa is +1200 to repeat as DPOY.

Marlins place Sandy Alcantara on 15-day IL — Miami is clinging on to the final wild-card spot in the National League, but the Marlins just got some brutal news that might sink their postseason chances. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has been placed on the 15-day injured list with only 24 games left in the season. Now, Alcantara has not been pitching to the level he displayed in 2022, but losing your ace at this stage in the season is never a welcome development. Miami is currently a half-game up on both Arizona and Cincinnati and 2.5 games up on San Francisco. The odds for all six teams in the wild card race to make the playoffs are as follows:

Philadelphia (-6000)
Chicago (-1100)
Miami (+130)
Arizona (+250)
Cincinnati (+225)
San Francisco (+450)

We're a sucker for the small-market clubs getting into the big dance. We're down to put a flyer on the Reds clinching that final wild-card spot at +225. Should be a fun September in MLB.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. For more from Griffin, follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

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