As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Houston Texans are facing skepticism regarding their playoff prospects. Despite recent successes, experts are beginning to question the sustainability of the team’s performance, particularly under the pressures of a competitive AFC South.
Analysts have pointed out that, although Houston has enjoyed back-to-back division titles, their path forward is fraught with challenges. With the team’s playoff odds hovering around 55 percent, there are concerns about whether they can maintain their momentum, especially given the unpredictable nature of the league.
Houston’s recent history shows that it has struggled to build on past successes. Following their consecutive division wins, the team faced a series of disappointing seasons that included a 4-12 record in 2020 and a 3-13-1 record in 2022. These ups and downs have led to questions about their current roster and whether they can truly compete at a high level.
One of the key factors in this assessment is the team’s quarterback, C.J. Stroud. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, there are doubts about his ability to lead Houston consistently, especially against stronger opponents. The addition of high-profile players has raised expectations, but the overall depth and resilience of the team remain uncertain.
Houston’s run next season may not culminate in a playoff appearance. This is detailed more in an analysis by Bill Barnwell for ESPN.
It’s entirely possible the AFC South doesn’t offer any real competition this season, either, but I’m (perhaps foolishly) more optimistic that the Jaguars and Titans can look like competent teams. Caserio has completely turned over the offensive line, but Houston is relying on young players who haven’t been good during their time in the league, unproven rookies and veterans who were cap casualties or castoffs elsewhere.
In a vacuum, without needing to pick three division winners to miss the postseason, I’d probably still peg the Texans as the favorites to win the AFC South, if only because C.J. Stroud offers such a high floor at quarterback. If I’m operating under the idea that I need to pick three division winners to miss the postseason entirely, though? Houston seems more vulnerable than any of the five teams I picked above.
In terms of their schedule, Houston will face tough competition not only within its division but also from the AFC as a whole. This could make it difficult for them to secure a playoff spot unless they can significantly improve their performance against top-tier teams.
While the Texans have the potential to be a playoff team, experts are wary of their ability to replicate past success. As the season unfolds, the focus will be on whether they can overcome these challenges and establish themselves as a serious contender in the AFC.
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