How Buccaneers can beat Patriots in Week 10

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a tough test when the New England Patriots come to Tampa on Sunday. 

Fresh off the bye, the Bucs are hosting a Patriots team that has shocked the league with how quickly they have turned things around. New England has been well-rounded on both sides of the ball and has taken on new head coach Mike Vrabel's hard-nosed, physical style of play. Helmed by MVP candidate Drake Maye, the offense has been efficiently moving the ball down the field and finding the endzone, averaging 26.3 points per game. 

The Patriots' defense has been excellent against the run, leading the league in limiting rushers to just 75 yards per game. They rank amongst the league's best at keeping teams out of the endzone, allowing just 18.8 points per game. And they are the fourth-best unit on third down. 

However, it appears the Bucs will be getting Luke Goedeke back, a major addition to the offensive line. And with the bye week to rest up, prepare and get healthy, Tampa Bay has something to prove. The Buccaneers can secure a hard-fought victory on Sunday and move to 7-2 if they follow these keys to cannon fire. 

Take what the defense gives you 

The Patriots' defense is likely to shut down the Bucs' rushing attack as they have done to so many offenses before them. They haven’t allowed a team to gain more than 73 yards on the ground this season, and with Bucky Irving still sidelined, it's going to prove to be an uphill battle even if Luke Goedeke returns. 

Instead, the Bucs need to turn to the Patriots' old tricks and just take what the defense gives them in each play. If that means “dinking and dunking” your way into the red zone, where the Pats have been horrendous this year, then so be it. Attacking the middle of the field and intermediate areas will be how the Bucs will find the most success. Baker Mayfield can’t force it, and without a run game, getting the ball out as quickly as possible will be key. 

Protect the middle of the field

Just what the Buccaneers love to see: two pass-catching tight ends and a receiving back. The defense has been torn up over the middle of the field and by runners turned receivers out of the backfield this season. Unfortunately, New England has a pair of tight ends that can hurt you. Patriots offense coordinator Josh McDaniels loves to run 12 personnel, and when they do, they will utilize Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. 

Henry has been Maye’s go-to weapon in the red zone, with three of his four touchdowns coming in the area. Hooper still offers value as a pass catcher, has a red zone touchdown of his own and has been an excellent pass blocker this season. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has yet to hit the century mark rushing but has proven to be a useful weapon out of the backfield with 20 grabs on the year.  

The Bucs defense will need to be disciplined against the Pats offense, especially over the middle of the field. SirVocea Dennis needs to continue to build on his last few good outings in coverage, and the hope is that he will continue to grow there. Fortunately for Lavonte David, Henry and Hooper can’t run like they used to, but the veteran linebacker will need to play sticky all game long. The Bucs did a much better job protecting the middle of the field in New Orleans and will need to do so against the Patriots to come out with a win. 

Convert on third down and capitalize in the red zone

As I mentioned before, New England’s defense has been really good on third down. The unit is shutting teams down, holding offenses to a 33.7% conversion rate on the critical drive extending down. Unfortunately, compared to last year, the Bucs are struggling on third down. Tampa Bay’s offense is converting on just 36.3% of its third-down attempts. The Bucs offense hasn’t looked like its normal self over the past few weeks with some of their marquee players unavailable, but they’ll need to turn around their third-down woes against the Patriots. 

In that same breath, the Bucs have also struggled to capitalize when they’ve made it into the red zone. Their 50% conversion rate has landed them 26th overall in league rankings. However, there is a silver lining. For as bad as the Bucs have been in the red zone, the Patriots' defense has been worse. New England ranks dead last in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score 75% of the time. With two weeks to prepare, the Buccaneers offense needs to make it count when they're inside the 20.