How Giants' Saquon Barkley lost betting on himself

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley bet on himself this offseason and lost, potentially in a massive way by the time everything is said and done. 

It was learned Tuesday morning that, instead of making $10.091M via the franchise tag, Barkley signed a one-year contract worth $10.1M with incentives that can increase the deal's worth up to $11M. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t Jordan Raanan) and Art Stapleton of NorthJersey.com, Barkley earns the extra $909,000 only if the Giants qualify for the playoffs and he records 1,350 rushing yards, 11 total offensive touchdowns and 65 or more receptions. 

Additionally, Giants general manager Joe Schoen can use the franchise tag to retain Barkley's rights again next year. 

"If he accepted one of Schoen’s initial offers, (Barkley) had a chance to make $26M practically guaranteed — which is the term that matters most in an NFL contract — over the deal’s first two years," NFL reporter and analyst Darryl Slater of NJ Advance Media for NJ.com mentioned on Tuesday. 

Schoen reportedly offered Barkley's camp a contract worth $13M per year and $26M over that agreement's first two years not long after the 2022 season concluded. The Giants pulled that proposal after they signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year contract in March.

Slater also pointed out that if Barkley hits every incentive and the Giants make the playoffs, the 26-year-old would be on track to earn roughly $23.109M guaranteed assuming Schoen tags the ball-carrier next March. 

Barkley accumulated a career-best 1,312 rushing yards last season, and he's never matched the 15 total offensive touchdowns he tallied as a rookie back in 2018. He found the end zone 10 times, all on the ground, during this past campaign. 

For a piece published on Monday, Nate Davis of USA Today predicted the 2023 Giants will finish at 6-11 and well out of the playoffs. 

Barkley would earn $22.2M over the next two years if he fails to reach all his incentives and Schoen tags the 2018 first-round draft pick next year. However, logic suggests the Giants will only tag Barkley again if he plays above what's become the market value for his position in the same season that Jones will have upgraded weapons in the passing attack compared to last fall. 

Perhaps Barkley will cash in with the Giants or as a free agent next spring and ultimately decide the past six months of negotiations were worth the anxiety. As of the final Tuesday in July, it's clear he was never sitting any regular-season games out because he realized he'd already lost regarding money earned for the upcoming campaign once the July 17 deadline for teams to sign tagged players passed.