How Miami will Exceed its Slim Win Total Projection

How Miami will Exceed its Slim Win Total Projection

Four games. 

Betting sites like Hard Rock Bet and Draft Kings have the Dolphins’ projected win total at 4.5. ESPN analyst Mike Clay has the team sitting at 2.5. Yes, NFL fans can take the under and predict that Miami will win fewer than 23% of its total games in 2026.

The last time the Dolphins won fewer than four games was the tumultuous 2007 season when they went 1-15. Outside of ‘07 and the team’s 4-12 year in ‘04, Miami has only witnessed a 10-loss season or worse twice, and a good portion of fans weren’t even alive to see it. They finished 3-10-1 in 1969 and 3-11 in the team’s inaugural season in 1966.

Betting experts set the line at 4.5 for this season, and I would expect Miami to cover. Maybe not with ease, but it’s five games. These are Jets-like numbers. New York finished 3-14 last season, but I believe Miami will be much better than the Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor/Brady Cook disaster that occurred in East Rutherford. 

While it probably won’t be pretty, Miami can muscle out at least a handful of wins by the time January rolls around.

The NFL schedule makers did the Dolphins a bit of a disservice by pushing them out of Miami Gardens during the dreadful September heat, but the late-season cold shouldn’t bother them nearly as much as in the past.

We won’t be seeing any “I wish it were colder shirts” before the team heads up to Buffalo for a winter matchup, at least I hope not. 

Starting with Week 1, pulling out a win in Las Vegas is extremely doable. The Raiders, whether with Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, will be finding their footing. 

They were also on the league’s floor at 3-14 last year, and a few players won’t change everything around immediately. This has a low-scoring affair written all over it, so get ready for a Matt Gay vs. Riley Patterson (or Zane Gonzalez) showdown. 

Weeks 2 and 3 can be thrown out because playing at San Francisco and hosting Patrick Mahomes and Co. won’t go over too well.

The Dolphins travel to Minnesota for Week 4, and I would circle this game as a win. Whether Kyler Murray or JJ McCarthy is under center, this is one of the most winnable games on the schedule. Although Justin Jefferson will undoubtedly run circles around this secondary. 

Like his former LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase will do the same, just at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 5. 

Miami could enter the bye week sitting at 2-4.

The lengthy stretch after the break could certainly open with a win in The Meadowlands. 

The Dolphins have taken 14 of the last 17 games against the Jets, and that trend should continue this season. Miami will get the best of its bitter rival in both matchups of 2026.

Outside of wins against the Raiders, Vikings, and Jets, I have Miami topping at least one of the Colts, Chargers, and Bills.

It feels like the Dolphins face the Colts nearly every season, but they’ve dropped the last three games. Miami hasn’t seen a win at Lucas Oil Stadium since 2019, but that will change in Week 10.

On paper, the Chargers and Bills are both much better than Miami, but weird things happen at Hard Rock. Week 16 will be marketed as Mike McDaniel’s revenge game, where he will either make a fool of himself, or everyone will be saying that Stephen Ross made a mistake by firing him. 

Maybe this is recency bias, or maybe I’m way too optimistic, but the Dolphins have a chance at beating Buffalo in Week 17. Who knows if it will be a must-win game to seal the division for the Bills or if Miami losing would wrap up a top-three pick in the draft? 

Regardless of the circumstances, we could hear Dolphins fans counting down the final seconds of regulation in the final home game of the year.

The Dolphins finally got over the hump by taking down Josh Allen in Miami, and you never know if the same will happen just three days into 2027.