Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

How the Chiefs Must Navigate Uncharted Waters

Originally posted on Kansas City Chiefs on SI
By Andy Quach | Last updated Nov 19, 2025 1:26 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs just had the floor fall out from under them. This time last week, they were essentially the greatest 5-4 team in NFL history. Despite their middling start to the 2025 season, everyone still expected Patrick Mahomes and company to go into their bye, flip a switch, and go on a tear right through the Super Bowl to continue their dynastic run.

It all started with the Denver Broncos in Week 11. They came into the matchup at 8-2, atop the AFC West division. And yet, they were the home underdogs against the Chiefs. After all, would Bo Nix really be able to get the best of Patrick Mahomes with his back against the wall?

Turns out, the answer was yes. Not only did Denver outlast Kansas City, 22-19, but Nix outplayed Mahomes, underscored by his 32-yard dagger to Troy Frankling to set up the game-winning field goal. Now, the Chiefs are in a position they've never experienced before in the Mahomes era.

Chiefs have no margin for error

When Will Lutz nailed the 35-yard field goal to give the Denver Broncos the win, he also kicked the Kansas City Chiefs' hopes of capturing the division out of the window. It's not technically impossible, as there's still a lot of football left to be played for both teams, but KC might as well shift its focus to capturing a Wild Card spot in the AFC instead.

ESPN has the Chiefs with just a nine percent chance to claim the division after their loss to the Broncos, while Denver is at 77 percent, and the Los Angeles Chargers are at 14 percent after their loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile, FanDuel has Kansas City at +600 to win the AFC West.

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

On the bright side

The Chiefs still have a path to the postseason, but it won't be an easy one. ESPN gives them a 55 percent shot at the playoffs, while FanDuel has their odds at -194, both of which are pretty favorable figures for a 5-5 team. The bad news is that Kansas City has already lost to every single team currently possessing a Wild Card spot (the Buffalo Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars). ESPN's Bill Barnwell delivered some good news for KC, though:

"With seven games to go, though, the schedule does get a little bit easier from here on out... The Chiefs get the Cowboys, Titans and Raiders on the road between now and the end of the year... The Chiefs' tougher games — the Colts, Texans, Chargers and that rematch with the Broncos — are all at Arrowhead. That's a fortuitous turn of events. It wouldn't be a shock if the Chiefs were favored in each of their seven remaining games... More than anything, though, the evidence suggests that this is a pretty good football team that has had some very poor timing or sequencing."

Betting odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

This article first appeared on Kansas City Chiefs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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