How Will The Quarterback Carousel Spin?

We have quite a few teams cutting their starting QB for 2026. Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Tua Tagovailoa will be on different teams next season. And we also have some teams in need of a new signal-caller. The Vikings, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Steelers, Browns, Jets, and Colts could/should be looking at the QB market.

The Steelers are likely depending on whether Aaron Rodgers comes back for another final season. Las Vegas will probably draft Fernando Mendoza with the 1st pick. The Colts will try to keep Daniel Jones, while the Browns are likely to ride with Shedeur Sanders this year. The Miami Dolphins reached an agreement with Malik Willis at the start of the negotiating period. There are also trade candidates, highlighted by Mac Jones and Anthony Richardson. This leaves us with the Vikings, Cardinals, Falcons, and Jets.

Arizona Cardinals

One of the teams getting rid of their QB, Mike LaFleur will start his tenure without a stablished quarterback. The Cardinals are a blank canvas right now, so it’s hard to know if they will sign a veteran or draft someone in April. They only have Jacoby Brissett and Kedon Slovis on the roster, so someone is coming. If they have enough trust in Brisett, they could start him this season while drafting a quarterback to sit and learn behind him.

There aren’t many good options if that’s the case, though. They won’t get Fernando Mendonza, who is the best QB in this class. The 3rd pick is super high to take Ty Simpson, who is regarded as the second-best. They could try the Giants’ route, who took Abdul Carter 3rd overall and Jaxson Dart later in the first round. As they don’t have a second first-round pick, this would mean a trade with someone in the 20s.

And I think this would be the best-case scenario for them. For starters, they have three juggernauts in the division. With all due respect to the players and the fanbase, they are well behind the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams. So taking the long-term approach makes a lot of sense. They also don’t have a superstar player entering their prime to force them to try and compete now. If they can’t trade up and get Ty Simpson, they could probably get one early in the fourth round.

Prediction: Will draft either Ty Simpson late in the first round or Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar in the fourth; competition between the rookie and Jacoby Brissett during training camp.

Atlanta Falcons

This one is a little easier for us. Like the Cardinals, they will have a new head coach in 2026, with Kevin Stefanski taking the reins. I thought he’d keep Kirk Cousins, as they were together in Minnesota in 2019. But Cousins’ contract was too heavy to keep. With Michael Penix suffering an ACL injury late in the season, the timetable for his return is muddy. He’s optimistic about getting back in time for Week 1, but it is a long shot.

So why is this one easier? Because there are already reports that the Falcons are making a push to sign Tua Tagovailoa. The question would be who will be the starter. Both have a troubling injury history, with Penix now having to reconstruct both ACLs and Tua with a concerning number of concussions. If both are healthy and ready to play, I’d give the nod to Micahel Penix.

Prediction: Will sign Tua Tagovailoa for the vet minimum.

New York Jets

Without sugarcoating it, the Jets’ future looks bleak. They have some Draft capital in 2026 and 2027, but that’s due to tearing down the roster and starting another rebuild. There’s also a very likely scenario in which they fire another head coach after the season, with Aaron Glenn on a very hot seat and a not very good roster.

I believe they are eyeing the 2027 quarterback class rather than taking someone this year, so a veteran is likely coming. They have two candidates here, Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith. I’d also like to see them take a flyer on Anthony Richardson. Pair the former 4th overall pick with Smith/Cousins for 2026. Start the veteran and see what happens. If he’s struggling too much, see what Richardson can do for you. The worst-case scenario is being very bad and probably finishing with the 1st pick in the 2027 Draft. Which, to be honest, is the most likely thing to happen regardless.

If (and that’s a big if) Richardson has to play and shows he can be a long-term starter, you struck gold. You’d have your quarterback of the future, still a probable high pick in a great class, and tons of options. Trading down and getting a king’s ramson? Great option. Staying put and drafting someone like Jeremiah Smith? Also great. And again, if it all goes bad, you have Julian Sayin, Dante Moore, and Arch Manning as candidates for the first pick.

Prediction: Sign Kirk Cousins and trade for Anthony Richardson.

Minnesota Vikings

Also a tricky one, the Vikings are in a bad spot. It’s hard not to make the playoffs and watch your starter in 2024 lift the Lombardi with another team. I won’t pile on that because at the time I thought that was the right move, and hindsight is always 20/20. The problem is that J.J. McCarthy missed seven games and was too inconsistent.

It will all come down to how much they still believe in McCarthy. If you think the QB drafted 10th overall is still your long-term option, but you want some competition, the best option would be Geno Smith. If you are out on him, then Kyler Murray is the best candidate. Why Geno and not Cousins? I think it’d be a weird vibe to have Cousins back with McCarthy due to why the relationship ended. Especially if you want Cousins to help McCarthy. And why Murray and not someone like Mac Jones? Because I’d rather pay the vet minimum than trade a second-round pick.

With everything that has been circulating, the Vikings are really keen on signing Kyler Murray. And this could put you in the Sam Darnold situation again. Murray has the talent; you will hardly ever be the first player taken if you aren’t good. He showed it in spurts, but wasn’t consistent week-in and week-out. The Cardinals indeed struggled to put together a good offense around him, something he’d absolutely have with the Vikings. The upside is there, but questions about the scheme fit, long-term stability, and consistency will show up again in Minnesota.

Prediction: Sign Kyler Murray for the vet minimum.

Edit: The Atlanta Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa and the Arizona Cardinals signed Gardner Minshew after this article was finished.