Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Is it fair for the Falcons to expect so much of their rookies?

Originally posted on SportsTalkATL | By Alex Lord | Last updated Jun 19, 2025 11:16 AM ET

Right or wrong, expectations for the Falcons are high this year. It’s been seven seasons since the team’s last postseason berth. Hell, they haven’t even had a record above .500 in that span.

It’s past time for this team to get back to the playoffs, and the Falcons’ success in 2025 depends on a few things. First and foremost, Michael Penix‘s development will likely decide whether the team sinks or swims.

We saw quarterback play lead the Falcons to a 6-3 record to begin the 2024 season, and we saw quarterback play lead to a 1-4 record in the team’s next five games. The Falcons literally lived and died by the sword that was Kirk Cousins last year.

This season will be no different. Michael Penix Jr. will be the biggest factor in whether Atlanta ends their playoff drought or not. He’s not the only factor, though. Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich will play a role as well. Coaching wasn’t a strength for the team last year. Each must be better in 2025.

The Falcons will also be heavily relying on their rookies, according to Cameron Wolfe.

Most important non-QB Falcons — how early their top 4 rookies all defenders with potentially key roles can become big contributors.

More for @nflnetwork The Insiders on Jalon Walker & James Pearce Jr. and impact vets like Jessie Bates III have on their development. pic.twitter.com/DM3UwqZtw8

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) June 17, 2025

Expecting two first-rounders to contribute isn’t crazy, but expectations should be tempered. Walker and Pearce should have an immediate impact to a certain degree; however, a season total of 10-12 sacks between the two of them would be about average for their draft slots.

It might be subpar compared to the best pass rushers in the league, but rookie campaigns like Micah Parsons and Jared Verse aren’t common. They’re atypical of rookie pass rushers. Walker and Pearce should be considered complementary pieces, like most rookie pass rushers.

Expectations for Day 2 draft picks should be even lower than first-rounders, so while Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman Jr. play positions where the learning curve is less steep than Walker and Pearce, nobody should expect them to be well above average starters from day one.

It’s not unheard of for rookies to have profound effects. We saw a slew of young defenders help propel the Falcons to a Super Bowl in 2016, but once again, that’s not a common theme. Generally speaking, rookies have a tough time adjusting to the NFL.

Thankfully, for the Falcons’ rookies, there will be a wealth of knowledge to lean on in each area. Walker and Pearce will have Leonard Floyd as a resource. Watts will have Jessie Bates, and Bowman will have Mike Hughes and A.J. Terrell, along with a couple of new coaches on the defensive staff.

I’m hopeful, but I’m also wary that the Falcons might be asking too much of their rookies, especially the Day 2 picks.

This article first appeared on SportsTalkATL and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: