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Is Texans' Stroud already playing at a Pro Bowl caliber?
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Is Texans' C.J. Stroud already playing at a Pro Bowl caliber?

As Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud exceeds expectations, it begs the question, could the 21-year-old make the Pro Bowl this season?

Only 10 rookie QBs have made the Pro Bowl since the 1970 merger, via StatMuse. However, the second overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft shined in his first three starts, completing 78-of-121 passes for 906 yards and four TDs. 

Per StatMuse, he and Chargers star Justin Herbert are the only QBs with more than 900 yards and no interceptions.

"Stroud is playing at an unexpected Pro Bowl level over the first three weeks of the season," wrote former Bears head coach and the 33rdTeam contributor Marc Trestman. "I am certainly not anointing Stroud to the Hall of Fame or Pro Bowl status, but it is clear the stage is set for him to be special."

Furthermore, Stroud accomplished this with an injury-riddled offensive line that has allowed the NFL's sixth-highest pressure rate (28.3%), per Pro Football Reference.  

Despite Stroud's solid play, it's unlikely the Texans will win the AFC South this season because they hold the worst odds (+1000) of winning the division, per OddsChecker

This will hurt the QB's Pro Bowl chances. The AFC is loaded with talented QBs on Super Bowl contenders, including Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills) and Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins).

Nonetheless, many in league circles believe he's flashing franchise QB potential.

"Big upside. Already further along than I expected," an AFC executive recently told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "Pinpoint first- and second-level accuracy and shows anticipation flashes. Tough kid who takes hits and keeps on coming." 

Per OddsChecker, Stroud has the second-best odds (+450) of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year behind Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. If he continues on this trajectory, he will become a franchise cornerstone and eventually earn a Pro Bowl nod.  

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