While most of the attention was focused on the Colts and their ongoing fire sale, the division rival Titans were quietly working on a stunner. On Thursday, the bomb dropped. Tennessee agreed to trade All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears in exchange for two first-round picks and a swap of mid-round selections. 

It’s a seismic move for both franchises. The Bears get the defensive difference-maker they’ve needed to supercharge a hopeful Super Bowl run, while the 1-6 Titans are steering into the skid and embracing a rebuild, one that they hope this massive trade return accelerates. On the surface, it looks like a win-win. 

Does that stand up to further scrutiny? That’s a little more debatable. 

Bears Grade

Chicago is getting an outstanding player in Simmons. Since the start of last season, there arguably hasn’t been a more dominant interior defensive lineman. In his last 22 games, Simmons has 23 tackles for loss, 15 sacks, four forced fumbles, seven batted passes and, just to put a cherry on top, a safety. He’s No. 1 among all interior defenders this season with a 27 percent pass rush win rate despite being double-teamed 84 percent of the time. 

To add even more of a degree of difficulty, Simmons has been dominating despite playing on a team that has four wins in its last 22 tries. That means he’s had fewer chances to play with a lead and really rack up pass-rushing opportunities, but it hasn’t hurt his production. The only thing stopping Simmons from being talked about as a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year has been the Titans’ lack of team success. 

If he hits the ground running with the Bears, he’ll have a chance to make up ground in that race fast. Simmons is a perfect fit for what the Bears need on defense. The best way to take a decent defense and turn it into a Super Bowl-caliber unit is by beefing up the defensive line. The Bears have been linked to every high-end defensive lineman available this offseason, and they finally made their swing. 

The overall numbers for Chicago are actually solid so far this season — No. 9 in scoring defense, No. 4 in success rate, tied for No. 7 with 19 sacks entering Week 8, and No. 4 in pressure rate. However, they’re blitzing at the seventh-highest rate to generate those numbers. The Bears are also 16th in DVOA, which adjusts for quality of opponent, and all the way down at 29th in rushing defense DVOA. 

By adding Simmons, the Bears should be able to create pressure with just four rushers more often, letting DC Dennis Allen blitz less and take pressure off his secondary. Simmons also helps them on early downs against the run. A player of his stature will also create gravity that sucks up attention from opposing offenses and makes life easier for other players, like DE Montez Sweat and fellow DT Grady Jarrett. 

Another positive is the contract. Simmons is under contract for five years and about $125 million, as Tennessee paid him a chunk of change already this offseason after signing him to a three-year extension. At $25 million a year, that works out to 11th in average annual salary at his position. Safe to call that a steal, even if Simmons has good guarantee protection. He gets $21.45 million guaranteed in 2027, plus another $29.5 million in 2028 salary that guarantees in 2027, then $10 million of 2029 guarantees that vest in 2028. 

That said, the Bears paid an exorbitant cost in this trade. It truly feels like they just kept adding to their offer until the Titans reached a point where they felt it would be irresponsible to say no. Simmons becomes the sixth defensive player to be traded for multiple first-round picks in the past decade: 

• CB Sauce Gardner (Jets to Colts, 2025)
• OLB Micah Parsons (Cowboys to Packers, 2025)
• S Jamal Adams (Jets to Seahawks, 2020)
• CB Jalen Ramsey (Jaguars to Rams, 2019)
• OLB Khalil Mack (Raiders to Bears, 2018)

Recent trades for DT Quinnen Williams (2027 first, 2026 2nd and DT Mazi Smith) and DE Myles Garrett (2027 first, 2028 second, 2029 third, DE Jared Verse) don’t meet the two first-round pick threshold, but are still comparable to this deal. The Bears valued Simmons closer to Garrett, one of the best all-around pass rushers in the league, than Williams, a top-five or so defensive tackle. 

There’s a wide spectrum of results here, with a lot still to play out for the more recent trades. Ramsey was pivotal to the Rams’ Super Bowl win, but their latest swing for Garrett has had more muted results with him playing just one game due to injury. The Adams trade was a disaster for the Seahawks, and the early returns from the Gardner trade are pretty poor for the Colts. The Bears have been down this road before with Mack, and while he was a terrific player for them, the team didn’t accomplish its bigger goals. 

Sinking that big of an investment into any one player in a sport like football with a 100 percent injury rate is inherently risky. When it comes to Simmons specifically, there are extra risk factors the Bears are taking on. While he’s been remarkably durable, at 29 years old he’s approaching the age where there’s increased injury risk or physical decline. Simmons has played over 80 percent of the snaps for seven straight seasons — a remarkable feat that encapsulates how special of a player he is, but is also a significant amount of wear and tear. 

The Bears were also heavily linked to Colts DT DeForest Buckner, who ended up being traded to the 49ers at the cost of a fourth-round pick. He’s older and not quite as productive as Simmons, although he has matched him with four sacks so far this year. But if the Bears had pulled that off, they probably would have gotten 80 percent of the production for a fraction of the cost.

It’s tough to know how realistic a trade for Buckner was since he reportedly preferred a return to San Francisco where he started his career. Still, virtually any other trade the Bears made for a defensive lineman, even one in which they overpaid, would have been dramatically cheaper than this Simmons trade. Chicago is giving up more than you’ll see in 95 percent of trades. That will make it harder, but not impossible, to get a positive return on that investment from Simmons. 

If you’re the Bears, you’re banking on special players doing special things. Plenty of interior defensive linemen have remained productive going into their 30s, like Chris Jones, Cameron Heyward and Calais Campbell. Chicago is hoping Simmons follows in their footsteps. 

For the Bears to win this trade, they probably need to win a Super Bowl at some point in the next three years, or at least be playing in the NFC title game for a couple of those years. If Simmons is a productive player through the remainder of his contract, that would also be a win. That’s a narrow path to navigate, even if the upside is incredible. 

Final grade: B-

I can’t get as high as an A because of the extreme cost for an older player. But I also don’t think a C or lower is fair because of the real upside this trade creates for the Bears. In the end, I’ll straddle the fence a bit. 

Titans Grade

I’m sure the Titans will receive plenty of plaudits for this trade. Most of the time, taking two first-round picks for a player, especially a non-quarterback, is going to be the right move. It’s a tremendous haul, and at 1-6 there’s no disputing that Tennessee still has a lot of work to do to build the roster. Those picks fit their timeline cleaner than a 29-year-old defensive tackle. Anyone who’s played any Madden franchise or fantasy football understands the sex appeal of a lot of high draft picks. 

It’s not always that simple, though. Let’s revisit that list of trades from earlier. Here’s what the teams that shipped out star veterans for picks ended up turning those picks into. Often there were subsequent trades made with the picks, so I’ve tried to be inclusive without getting lost down the rabbit hole of late-round swaps. 

I’ve also included Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric, although it’s not available for 2026 yet. It’s intended to be a quick, one-size-fits-all, single-number snapshot of a player’s contributions in a given season. Football is much harder to distill to that level than baseball or basketball, so AV is far from perfect. For instance, it doesn’t weight for positional value, and in this use case it will be biased toward the side of the trade that gets more players. Still, it does get at the point I want to make.

Colts/Jets

IND: 

• Sauce Gardner AV: 1

NYJ:

• WR Adonai Mitchell (3)
• 2026 1st, TE Kenyon Sadiq
• 2027 1st

Cowboys/Packers

DAL: 

• DT Kenny Clark: 6
• OLB Malachi Lawrence
• CB Devin Moore
• DL LT Overton
• 2027 1st

GB: 

• OLB Micah Parsons: 13

Seahawks/Jets

SEA: 

• S Jamal Adams: 16
• S Coby Bryant: 14

NYJ: 

• S Bradley McDougald: 2
• G Alijah Vera-Tucker: 15
• WR Garrett Wilson: 29

New York got two firsts, a third and McDougald for Adams while sending along a fourth-round pick that was used on Bryant. The Jets packaged the third along with another third to move one of the first-round picks up nine slots for Vera-Tucker. 

Rams/Jaguars

LAR: 

• CB Jalen Ramsey: 46

JAX: 

• OLB K’Lavon Chaisson: 8
• RB Travis Etienne: 35
• OLB Jordan Smith: 0

The first trade was two firsts and a fourth for Ramsey. Jacksonville made a second trade with the Rams to move up for Smith in the fourth, giving up a fifth and swapping late-rounders. 

Bears/Raiders

CHI:

• OLB Khalil Mack: 45
• TE Cole Kmet: 28

LV: 

• RB Josh Jacobs: 44
• CB Damon Arnette: 2
• WR Bryan Edwards: 6

If we break these deals down to buyers versus sellers, the buy side comes out with the higher AV in three out of five cases. We could throw out the Parsons and Sauce trades because it’s too early to make any firm assessments, but those are split, too. The Jets are ahead after trading Gardner, while the Packers maintain a lead even though Parsons has yet to play in 2026. 

The message is clear — trading Simmons for picks was the easy part for the Titans. Replacing him will be harder. 

The other factor at play here — and it sounds harsh but I believe it’s a valid consideration — is that my faith in this trade is lessened by the team doing it. Copy-paste this exact deal and circumstances onto probably 25 other teams, and I’d probably boost the grade by a letter. But the Titans have done nothing in the last five years or so to supply any confidence they’re going to successfully navigate this transition away from a franchise cornerstone. 

At this point, the lack of patience or a consistent vision from ownership has been well-documented. The Titans have not gone more than a year with the same head coach/GM combo since 2021: 

• 2022: GM Jon Robinson/HC Mike Vrabel (7-10)
• 2023: GM Ran Carthon/Vrabel (6-11)
• 2024: Carthon/HC Brian Callahan (3-14)
• 2025: GM Mike Borgonzi/Callahan (3-14)
• 2026: Borgonzi/HC Robert Saleh (1-6)

This doesn’t even factor former EVP Chad Brinker, who hired Borgonzi and at one point supposedly had full roster control before he stepped away from the team this past April. As you can see from the records, this kind of turmoil is incredibly difficult for teams to overcome. It makes everything harder. It’s harder to hit on picks and free agents when the front office and coaching staff are mismatched, and harder when schemes and philosophies are changing every year. 

Even with four straight years picking in the top 11, drafting has been a struggle for the Titans. Here’s the team’s draft history from 2022 through 2024, what should be the core of the team. Players in bold are still on the roster. 

Titans Draft History
Year	Rnd	Player	Position
2024	1	JC Latham	OL
2024	2	T’Vondre Sweat	DL
2024	4	Cedric Gray	LB
2024	5	Jarvis Brownlee	DB
2024	6	Jha’Quan Jackson	WR
2024	7	James Williams	SAF
2024	7	Jaylen Harrell	DE
2023	1	Peter Skoronski	OL
2023	2	Will Levis	QB
2023	3	Tyjae Spears	RB
2023	5	Josh Whyle	TE
2023	6	Jaelyn Duncan	OL
2023	7	Colton Dowell	WR
2022	1	Treylon Burks	WR
2022	2	Roger McCreary	CB
2022	3	Nicholas Petit-Frere	T
2022	3	Malik Willis	QB
2022	4	Hassan Haskins	RB
2022	4	Chig Okonkwo	TE
2022	5	Kyle Philips	WR
2022	6	Theo Jackson	DB
2022	6	Chance Campbell	LB

Because of that lack of success, the Titans were super active in free agency this past offseason to try and build up the roster. They needed better support for former No. 1 pick Cam Ward, who had an awful rookie season in an awful situation. Playoffs weren’t an expectation, but they wanted Saleh to be able to have enough early success to generate momentum for his program. 

That’s not how things have gone. The Titans are not getting nearly enough bang for their buck. On offense, WR Wan’Dale Robinson is the second-leading receiver but averaging an anemic 7.1 yards per catch. Ward is only playing marginally better than last year, and the execution around him isn’t doing him many favors. The offense has been one of the biggest factors holding the team back to start the season. 

Of the eight notable additions on defense, only a couple are playing up to their contracts. One of their biggest signings, CB Alontae Taylor, has not played the past two weeks because he struggled in the transition from slot corner, where he played with the Saints, to full-time boundary corner. Overall the defense is closer to average than bad, but that could change in a hurry now that Simmons is gone. 

So yeah, the picks are nice for the future, but the Titans’ leadership from the top down has shown nothing to inspire any confidence that there’s a plan to put the team in a place that’s better than where they started. 

Final grade: B

From a process standpoint, this is probably the right move for the Titans to make. I wish I had more confidence in the eventual results.