J.K. Dobbins signs with the worst team possible (and burns the Chargers)

J.K. Dobbins is parlaying his comeback season with the LA Chargers in 2024 into a deal with the Bolts' bitter division rival. After meeting with the team last week, Dobbins has officially signed with the Denver Broncos, per Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero.

Dobbins is signing a one-year, $5.25 million contract with the Broncos. This is a huge pay raise from the league-minimum contract he played under in 2024.

The Chargers slapped a rare unrestricted free agency tender on Dobbins after the 2025 NFL Draft. If no team signed Dobbins he would have returned to the Chargers on a 10% pay raise from the 2024 season. By tendering Dobbins, he will count toward the compensatory formula for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Broncos sign J.K. Dobbins, will the Chargers receive an extra draft pick?

While Dobbins technically factors into the compensatory pick formula, it does not appear the Chargers will receive a compensatory pick. The comp picks won't be official until next offseason and there are multiple factors that will decide whether or not Dobbins nets the team a pick.

As it stands right now, both Mike Williams and Tyler Conklin count toward the compensatory formula and have not been accounted for by departing free agents. With Dobbins' contract value being worth a sixth-round compensatory pick at most, he will inevitably be canceled out by one of Williams or Conklin (whose contracts are worth seventh-round compensatory picks).

However, Williams and Conklin could fall out of the compensatory formula depending what happens during the 2025 season. Both contracts are incentive-based, and if both players fail to hit incentives, they could theoretically fall out of the equation.

It is unlikely, as it would require other players in the league usurping them in the formula, but it is possible. And if that happens, the Chargers would net a sixth or seventh-round pick for Dobbins.

That being said, seeing Dobbins join a division rival is painful and at this moment, doesn't seem to be worth a pick in the 200s that the Chargers may or may not get.

Dobbins is a dynamic player who undoubtedly will raise the ceiling of the Broncos' offense. The Chargers were never going to re-sign him at that price with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, but it doesn't make it any less painful that he is on a rival.

It is worth noting, too, that Dobbins' contract is worth the exact same amount as Harris's contract (before incentives). If Dobbins outperforms Harris on a division rival then that decision will age poorly.