Justin Fields has chance to resurrect breakout narrative on MNF

It feels like years ago at this point.

One start into his New York Jets career, Justin Fields seemed like he might be on track to become the next veteran quarterback to break out in his mid-twenties. Hype was swirling the 26-year-old passer, both inside and outside of New York, as onlookers marveled at the idea of a fully realized Fields.

In his Jets debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Fields was the NFL’s top quarterback of Week 1 based on EPA per dropback (+0.49). Based on the same metric, it was also the Jets’ best quarterback performance since Week 12 of the 2022 season, and better than any performance from Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, or Aaron Rodgers across 99 combined starts in New York.

Sure, it was only one game. But for Fields to come out that strongly in his first appearance with a new franchise and in a new scheme – especially against a strong defense that knew him well from his time practicing against them – it suggested that maybe the New York version of Justin Fields would look like this on a regular basis.

As is often the case with the Jets organization, that hype died out as quickly as it was born.

In one of the starkest two-week turnarounds by an NFL player in recent history, Fields came out in Week 2 and suddenly looked like the worst quarterback in football. He averaged -1.01 EPA per dropback in New York’s 30-10 loss to Buffalo, which was not only the league’s worst mark of the week, but the second-worst mark by any quarterback since the start of the 2024 season.

Of course, the Jets and their fans hoped Fields would replicate his Week 1 dominance in Week 2. Even if he didn’t, though, the bare minimum expectation was for Fields to provide a second consecutive competent start. As long as he did that, it would have put him on a promising trajectory. His two-week body of work would have made him one of the best quarterbacks in the league through that point.

With even just a mediocre performance in Week 2, the hype around Fields could have remained lofty. Instead, he was bad enough to cancel out the optimism generated by his debut. It leaves him in the same position he has been for four-plus years: A high-ceiling, low-floor quarterback who could look like the best thing since sliced bread in one game and a deer in headlights the following week.

Fields left late in Week 2 with a concussion, which knocked him out of the Jets’ Week 3 game against Tampa Bay. In Fields’ place, veteran backup Tyrod Taylor was not a noticeable upgrade. While Taylor showed a higher floor than what Fields provided in Week 2, Taylor undoubtedly lowers the offense’s ceiling compared to when Fields is under center.

As we head into the Jets’ Week 4 showdown on Monday Night Football, the hype around Fields’ New York debut is long gone. At this point in time, Fields’ outlook does not feel any different than it did when the Jets signed him. He had one fantastic game that showed all of his positive traits, one brutal game that showed all of his warts, and one missed game (which highlights concerns about his durability).

Fields has always been capable of performances like the one he had against Pittsburgh. The key for him is to consistently be at least solid every week, avoiding team-sinking performances like the one he had against Buffalo. So, when Fields immediately followed up his Pittsburgh showcase with the Buffalo stinker, it erased any optimism that Fields had turned a corner in the consistency department just yet.

But there are still 14 football games left to be played.

While the Fields hype train has screeched to a halt over the last three weeks, Fields has plenty of time to reignite the buzz that surrounded him after his sparkling premiere.

It all has to start tonight, though.

Fields is going up against a Miami defense that has allowed the highest opponent passer rating in the NFL (128.9). He could not ask for a better opportunity to put on a show for the national audience.

With a standout showing and a road victory tonight, Fields will quickly fan away the stench of his previous performance. At that point, Fields will have given the Jets two quality starts out of three, and his season-long numbers will likely skyrocket back into the top 10 among quarterbacks.

The hype around Fields would be real once again.

Even then, however, Fields would still have a long way to go. As we discussed, the key for him is consistency. We know the ceiling is there. The only question is how often he can hit it, and whether he can avoid stooping to a floor just as low as his ceiling is high.

Fields already proved in Week 2 that his immensely low floor is still as alive as his lofty ceiling. It’s a dark cloud that will hang over him for the rest of the season. With that in the rearview, it will always feel like Fields is prone to having that type of game on any given Sunday (or Monday).

The only way to erase the looming fear of that type of performance? Don’t do it again.

For anyone to take Fields seriously as a quarterback who might be on the verge of a legitimate breakout, he has to play well again, and again, and again, and again. One blockbuster game will never cut it if he follows it up with a box-office bomb.

And for that reason, tonight’s game against Miami cannot single-handedly revive Fields’ chances of turning his career around in New York. Even if he looks dominant, there will still be much for him to prove.

If he struggles, though? Well, Fields would be pretty far off from deserving any legitimate “breakout” talk at that point.

The Jets are facing perhaps the worst defense in the NFL. There is no better time for Fields – and the entire offense – to put it all together in a thoroughly-played victory.

If he can seize tonight’s opportunity, Fields will not necessarily re-establish himself as a breakout quarterback, but he will sustain his chances of having a breakout season. Those chances will become bleak if he makes it two poor starts out of three despite facing a hapless Fins defense.

Justin Fields’ quest for a career-altering season is on the line tonight. This is his opportunity to turn the narratives back in the favor.

We can talk all day about the negative traits Fields displayed against Buffalo, and whether they proved that he has not improved and will never be a quality starting quarterback. But that Pittsburgh film still exists, too. The guy we saw in Week 1 was a legitimately elite quarterback.

We just don’t know which guy is going to show up each week.