Kansas City Chiefs schedule 2024: Game by game and final record predictions

The 2024 NFL schedule is finally out, and we officially know which dates the Chiefs will play on this season. They open the season against the Baltimore Ravens, the same team they defeated in last season's AFC Championship Game. Additionally, they will play on Christmas Day for the second consecutive year, this time on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Chiefs are projected to appear in five primetime games, tied for the most in the NFL. These include three matchups on NBC and two on ESPN/ABC. Notably, they will start the season with two consecutive home games for the first time since 2003.

What does the entire schedule look like, and how will the Chiefs fare in each game? Which games are stone-cold locks, and which ones could be challenging for Kansas City?

Let's review every game on the Kansas City Chiefs' upcoming schedule and project the outcome of each matchup.

Week 1: vs. Baltimore Ravens (September 5, 7:20, NBC)

The Chiefs will commence their quest for a three-peat on Thursday, September 5, 2024, against the same team they beat in last season’s AFC Championship Game.

Baltimore should remain competitive, but they may take a step back this season. They lost multiple starters on the offensive line as well as their defensive coordinator. The Chiefs have consistently proven they can beat the Ravens in both the postseason and regular season.

Given how the Chiefs stumbled out of the gates last season, I don’t expect it to happen again. Expect Kansas City to come out firing on all cylinders, even if Rashee Rice’s status is unknown. The Chiefs are 5-1 in Week 1 during the Mahomes era and 9-2 during the Andy Reid era. Expect their early season success to continue this year.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 27, Ravens 17 and the Chiefs start 1-0.

Week 2: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (September 15, 3:25, CBS)

For their second game of the season, the Chiefs will host Joe Burrow (if he’s even healthy) and the Cincinnati Bengals. Although facing the Ravens and Bengals back-to-back is a tough start, Kansas City will have extended rest before both games.

Despite a down season in 2023, Cincinnati will likely return to their competitive ways in 2024. They strengthened both the offensive and defensive lines and drafted a high-ceiling wide receiver, Jermaine Burton, to support Burrow.

Although the Bengals have been a thorn in the Chiefs’ side for the past few years, they generally struggle in September and into October. Burrow was still recovering from an appendix procedure early in the 2022 season and dealt with a calf injury at the start of 2023 before his season-ending hand injury in November.

If this game were in December, I might predict a different outcome, but the Chiefs start their season 2-0 against teams they might be competing with for the #1 seed.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 20, Bengals 17 and the Chiefs improve to 2-0.

Week 3: @ Atlanta Falcons (September 22, 7:20, NBC)

Until the NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons were having one of the best offseasons in the league. They hired Raheem Morris, regarded as one of the top defensive head coaching candidates, and significantly upgraded their quarterback situation by acquiring Kirk Cousins. Despite signing Cousins to a contract with $90 million in guarantees, they decided to draft Michael Penix Jr. as his successor.

Nevertheless, the Falcons will be competitive, and this won’t be an easy game for Kansas City. Atlanta boasts an elite offensive line and a solid group of young skill players, including Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. However, the Chiefs' defense will prove to be too much for them.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Falcons 20 and the Chiefs rise up to 3-0.

Week 4: @ Los Angeles Chargers (September 29, Noon, CBS)

The standout coaching hire of the recent cycle undoubtedly was Jim Harbaugh joining the Los Angeles Chargers from the University of Michigan. Following the disappointing tenure of Brandon Staley, the Chargers appear poised for a resurgence.

Heading into the 2023 season, Patrick Mahomes had maintained an impeccable record, never succumbing to a road defeat against a divisional rival. However, the Chiefs suffered a setback in Denver, ending this remarkable streak. Despite the Chargers undergoing a period of adjustment, the duo of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh alone instills a sense of competitiveness in most matchups.

When the time comes, will I actually pick the Chiefs to lose this game? Perhaps not, but it's plausible that they'll encounter an unexpected loss that leaves fans exasperated. I venture to nominate this particular game as a prime contender for such an outcome.

PREDICTION: Chargers 22, Chiefs 21 and the Chiefs stumble to 3-1.

Week 5: vs. New Orleans Saints (October 7, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)

Derek Carr and Arrowhead Stadium go together like oil and water. While he's not winless, his record is a dismal 1-8, with a passer rating of 76.1, 10 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.

The Saints are in a state of purgatory, largely due to their complicated salary cap management, leaving them in a precarious position. They have too much talent to finish with a top 5 draft pick, but they're not good enough to be a genuine threat in the NFC.

The Chiefs will continue to make Derek Carr's life miserable, handing him yet another loss.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Saints 20 and the Chiefs rise to 4-1.

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: vs. San Francisco 49ers (October 20, 3:25, FOX)

The Chiefs will travel to Santa Clara in October for the second time in three years for another Super Bowl rematch. The 49ers will be hungry for revenge, while Patrick Mahomes will aim to assert his dominance over San Francisco, against whom he holds a 4-0 record.

Despite their success last season, the 49ers have a new defensive coordinator, which may lead to some growing pains for their typically dominant defense. Led by Nick Bosa, San Francisco could exploit a potentially weak tackle duo if things go awry for Kansas City.

Ultimately, the Chiefs will continue to dominate the Bay Area, handing the Niners another defeat.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 22, 49ers 19 OT (purely a coincidence) and the Chiefs climb to 5-1.

Week 8: @ Las Vegas Raiders (October 27, 3:25, CBS)

I'm not dwelling on last year's Christmas Day game. Antonio Pierce and Gardner Minshew aren't on my radar. What matters is the Chiefs asserting their dominance by winning the Super Bowl in the Raiders' own stadium.

The Raiders could use another dose of humility, and Patrick Mahomes isn't likely to surrender a game in the very venue where he triumphed at the highest level.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 29, Raiders 17 and the Chiefs improve to 6-1.

Week 9: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (November 4, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)

Despite losing Tom Brady to retirement, the Buccaneers took a step forward in 2023 with Baker Mayfield. They improved their record, won a playoff game, and gave Detroit all they could handle in the Divisional Round.

While the Buccaneers don't have a long history of success, the Chiefs haven't beaten them at Arrowhead since 1986. Granted, Tampa Bay has only traveled to KC twice in the last 39 years.

This time, the Chiefs will end the drought and hand Tampa Bay a decisive defeat.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 37, Bucs 17 as K.C. runs its record to 7-1.

Week 10: vs. Denver Broncos (November 10, Noon, CBS)

Broncos Country? Let’s eat $85M in dead money to get rid of Russell Wilson. Out goes Wilson and in comes Bo Nix. The Broncos are in full rebuild mode and shouldn’t be a threat in the AFC West for multiple seasons.

The Chiefs have no business losing any games to the Broncos this season. Denver's roster is quite depleted, and Bo Nix isn't instilling fear in anyone in the NFL. While Sean Payton might keep the game competitive, Kansas City should ultimately pull away, especially with the home-field advantage.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 33, Broncos 18 and the Chiefs ride to 8-1.

Week 11: @ Buffalo Bills (November 17, 3:25, CBS)

Not many teams have had a more eventful offseason than the Buffalo Bills. They first had to deal with yet another playoff loss to the Chiefs, and then they traded their star wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, to the Texans for a future second-round draft pick.

Love him or hate him, Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and was a nominee for the MVP award last season. After Mahomes, there's a strong argument that he’s the next-best quarterback in the league. While Kansas City has dominated the crucial matchups, the Bills are 3-0 against the Chiefs in their last three regular-season games, all played at Arrowhead.

Unfortunately, I believe the Chiefs’ bad regular-season luck against the Bills will continue in 2024. Despite the Bills taking a step back, this game is in Orchard Park. Regular-season games against the Chiefs are their Super Bowl, while for Kansas City, it’s just another game.

PREDICTION: Bills 25, Chiefs 20 and the Chiefs fall to 8-2.

Week 12: @ Carolina Panthers (November 24, Noon, CBS)

The Carolina Panthers have become one of the biggest jokes in American sports during David Tepper’s tumultuous tenure as owner. Even the Washington Generals look down on them with shame. Unless Bryce Young undergoes a miraculous transformation and Dave Canales channels the spirit of Sean McVay, Carolina's prospects for the season appear bleak.

Despite being on the road, the Chiefs should cruise to victory without much resistance. Carolina's pass rush leaves much to be desired, providing Patrick Mahomes with ample protection, and their secondary poses little threat. While their offense may show signs of improvement, the Chiefs boast one of the strongest defenses in the league.

Even if Carson Wentz were under center for Kansas City, they would still be heavily favored to emerge victorious

PREDICTION: Chiefs 29, Panthers 9 and the Chiefs climb to 9-2.

Week 13: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (November 29, 2:00, Amazon Prime)

After the Christmas Day disaster of 2023, Patrick Mahomes will not lose to the Raiders at home two seasons in a row, especially in a standalone game like this one on Black Friday. There's no need to spend more time analyzing this one.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Raiders 19 and the Chiefs and go to 10-2.

Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (December 8, 7:20, NBC)

The Chiefs' superiority over their AFC West rivals is undeniable, making any home defeat to any of them unacceptable. Is it impossible No, but certainly intolerable.

Despite Jim Harbaugh taking the helm (pun unintended), the Chiefs should secure a convincing victory in this matchup. The Los Angeles defense fails to impress, and their offense lacks the spark needed to keep pace with the Chiefs.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Chargers 14 and the Chiefs charge up to 11-2.

Week 15: @ Cleveland Browns (December 15, Noon, CBS)

The Browns boasted one of the league's top defenses last season, though their performance noticeably dipped on the road. Unfortunately for Kansas City, this matchup takes place in Cleveland.

Myles Garrett rightfully earned Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2023, and the Browns' formidable defensive line could pose a significant challenge for an offensive line that lacks elite talent at both tackle positions.

While Cleveland's defense shines, their offense fell short of expectations last season. Deshaun Watson's decline from his Houston days raises concerns, particularly considering his hefty contract. If he fails to rediscover his previous form, the Browns could find themselves in a precarious situation.

This game has all the markings of a Chiefs victory, albeit one that lacks true satisfaction.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 16, Browns 14 and the Chiefs soar to 12-2.

Week 16: vs. Houston Texans (December 21, Noon, NBC)

The Houston Texans have emerged as a standout during the NFL offseason. With CJ Stroud’s impressive performance last season and their bold acquisitions of Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, Houston appears to be shaping up as an immediate Super Bowl contender.

However, whether they can avoid a sophomore slump remains uncertain. Nonetheless, if Stroud maintains his level of play from last year, the Texans could pose a significant challenge to the Chiefs.

While we all hope for the Chiefs to maintain an unbeaten record at Arrowhead, history suggests it's a rare accomplishment. The team hasn’t achieved an undefeated home record in the regular season since 2003 and has never done so in the Arrowhead era, even including postseason games. Moreover, Kansas City typically performs well in December, but this game could potentially be a trap, especially with a Christmas Day matchup looming.

In this contest, I'm inclined to pick Houston. It’s one of the few matchups where it's not unreasonable to bet against Kansas City, although the outcome remains uncertain.

PREDICTION: Texans 23, Chiefs 20 and the Chiefs fall to 12-3.

Week 17: @ Pittsburgh Steelers (December 25, Noon, Netflix)

The Chiefs are gearing up for a trip to Pittsburgh, marking their first visit since Patrick Mahomes’ standout performance in Week 2 of 2018, set to unfold on Christmas Day. Who could forget Mahomes' spectacular display in that game? He lit up the field with 326 passing yards on just 28 attempts, notching an impressive six touchdowns in what stands as one of the future Hall of Famer’s most memorable outings.

Nevertheless, the Steelers are poised to present a stiffer challenge compared to recent years. While their quarterback situation may not have seen significant upgrades, it has gained stability and potential with the additions of Russell Wilson and Kenny Pickett. Bolstered by a strong draft, their offensive line has the potential to transform from a liability into a strength, while their defense, spearheaded by TJ Watt, remains a formidable group.

It's worth noting that the Chiefs seem to drop a game they shouldn’t every season. This upcoming matchup has all the markings of one of those games, despite the crucial juncture it represents being so close to the postseason. With the coaching prowess of Mike Tomlin and the formidable challenge of playing in Pittsburgh, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers making a return to the postseason this year.

PREDICTION: Steelers 22, Chiefs 20 and the Chiefs fall to 12-4.

Week 18: @ Denver Broncos (January 5, TBD)

The Chiefs' 15-point defeat at Mile High last year should have served as a humbling experience. There's no excuse for them to falter in Denver for the second consecutive season. While it may be a closely contested matchup, Kansas City should ultimately triumph and reignite their winning streak against their longtime rivals.

If the Chiefs have already secured their playoff berth, they may opt to rest starters in this game. However, regardless of the playoff scenario, as long as Patrick Mahomes remains healthy, losing should be out of the question for Kansas City.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 35, Broncos 14 and the Chiefs finish 13-4.

Conclusion

For many Chiefs fans, a 13-4 record might feel underwhelming, and it's understandable why they might believe that. Kansas City is expected to be the favorite in all but a couple of games this season, leaving room for optimism that they could secure 14 or even 15 wins.

A 13-4 record should position them well for the #1 seed in the AFC, especially given the competitive landscape of the conference this year. At the very least, they should clinch the #2 seed. In 2023, their 11-6 record landed them the #3 seed, albeit losing the tiebreaker to Buffalo. However, with a 13-4 record, they should be in a prime position for the top seed.

Under Andy Reid's tenure, the Chiefs have won at least 13 regular season games twice (in 2020 and 2022). While it's not a guarantee they'll replicate that feat this season, considering the relatively weaker AFC West, it's not unreasonable to project them to secure at least 14 victories. Nonetheless, accomplishing such a task remains a significant challenge for any team.