Key Colts Takeaways Entering Final Seven-Game Stretch

Looking ahead, the Colts won't be afforded much leeway if they want to contend for the conference's first seed. Their remaining strength of schedule ranks as the fourth hardest in the league and the hardest in the conference, according to Tankathon. The only fellow AFC teams in the top ten are the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers, ranking fifth and eighth, respectively.

Comparatively, the Broncos and Patriots have smooth sailing. Denver's remaining schedule comes in as the 12th easiest in the league and the 5th easiest in the conference. New England's remaining opponents' average win percentage is .371, the 2nd easiest mark in the league, only behind the New Orleans Saints.

The Colts are not currently slated to play a single team .500 or worse for the rest of the season. Of the team's final five opponents, three are current playoff teams. Of the non-playoff teams, one is the back-to-back AFC South champion Houston Texans, who are currently allowing the lowest EPA per play of any team in the league defensively, per rbsdm.com. The other has played in five of the last six Super Bowls and will host the Colts this week in Arrowhead.

As of right now, the Colts' 6-1 record against AFC teams would grant them the tiebreaker over New England if they were to finish with the same record. The Patriots are 5-2 in conference play with four AFC matchups to go, while five of Indianapolis's remaining seven games are in-conference.

Unfortunately for the Colts, the team won't get the chance to play the Patriots this season for the first time since 2020. New England is led by MVP-hopeful quarterback Drake Maye, who has the easiest path in the conference to the first seed, an accomplishment that could very well be enough to earn him the award.

Defensive Resurgence Essential to Colts' Playoff Hopes

Running back Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' offense have been the story of the season, but solid defensive play has helped the Colts maintain above-average output on both sides of the ball. The unit ranks top ten in EPA allowed per play for the first time since 2020, when linebacker Shaquille Leonard was named to the AP's All-Pro first-team.

Indianapolis has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league through ten games, only more than the Jaguars and Texans. Two weeks ago in Berlin, the team held Atlanta Falcons star running back Bijan Robinson to 84 yards on 17 attempts.

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has flashed his creativity this season, like sending linebacker Zaire Franklin to blitz more frequently than at any point in his career. On 53 pass rush snaps from Franklin, he's generated 11 pressures, 6 hurries, and recorded 2 sacks, per Pro Football Focus.

The Colts' linebackers have struggled in coverage despite the general success of the defense. Of the three players to take at least 40 snaps at the position for the team this season, none have a coverage grade over 53, per PFF.

The massive addition of cornerback Sauce Gardner ahead of the trade deadline will attempt to bolster a secondary that has been riddled by injuries. In Gardner's debut with the team, he allowed just one reception across three total targets, per PFF. The Colts hope to get back cornerback Charvarius Ward this week, who is eligible to return from IR after missing the last four games.

A reloaded secondary for the team's final stretch will help to combat a subpar Colts pass rush so far this year. Through eleven weeks, just one Colts' pass rusher has notched a top 50 pass rush grade at the position, according to PFF.

Second-year edge Laiatu Latu has been a bright spot on a rather unproductive defensive line; his 38 pressures lead the team. He joins DeForest Buckner as the only two Colts with more than 30 on the season. His six sacks also lead the team.

Two of the Colts final five opponents rank top ten in offensive EPA per play, per rbsdm.com. The Chiefs rank third, while the San Francisco 49ers rank ninth. Both the Jaguars and Texans sit outside the league's top half.

Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner landed on IR ahead of the team's trip to Berlin, but Adetomiwa Adeboware has already provided solid production in limited playing time this season. According to PFF, his 14 pressures are good for the fifth most on the team. He's also notched 2 sacks and 11 quarterback hits.

Their depth has been tested, but an otherwise solid start for the team's defense has provided ample support to Daniel Jones and company thus far. Continued consistency will make the difference in the team's playoff push and success in their final gauntlet.

Lean on Taylor, Rely on Jones

There is little doubt about the legitimacy of the Colts' offense this season; their 396.9 total yards per game is the highest mark in the NFL. They're the only team scoring over 30 points per game at an average of 32.1, and their point differential of +115 makes them one of just three teams with +100 or better.

Daniel Jones is third in the league in passing yards, Jonathan Taylor is the only player in the league with over 1,000 rushing yards at 1,139, and tight end Tyler Warren has the third most receiving yards among all tight ends. Receiver Alec Pierce leads the league in yards per catch, and the Colts have the league's third-most-efficient offensive line, according to PFF.

Jones came up clutch in overtime against the Falcons to earn the win overseas, and Taylor had nearly 300 total yards. Potentially worth concern, however, could be Jones' ability to maintain ball security. He turned the ball over twice against Atlanta, an improvement from his total of five against the Pittsburgh Steelers one week prior.

Shane Steichen has been able to continually lean on Jones to start games before turning to Taylor to finish the job. Any potential success over their next seven games will be entirely dependent on the version of ball-security we see from Jones in the clutch.

Next steps

As Jonathan Taylor continues his MVP effort, the Colts will look to finish a historic season strong, where they've continuously exceeded expectations. Playoff scenarios and schedule difficulty aside, all Shane Steichen and his team can control is what's in front of them: an opportunity for the franchise to host their first playoff game since the 2014 season.

The Colts will hit the road to face the Chiefs this Sunday at 1 p.m.. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes tries for his first career regular-season win over Indianapolis, the only team in the league he has yet to defeat before the playoffs.