Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Win Total: Big Additions Lead To Team Overhyped

Sure, the Raiders went out and hired Pete Carroll, a coach who’s older than some of the stadium’s concrete. At 73, Carroll’s supposed to be the sage who transforms this dumpster fire into a playoff contender. The same guy who couldn’t keep his job in Seattle after the Seahawks decided they’d rather roll with a younger option.

Don’t get me wrong, Carroll had his moments in the Pacific Northwest. But that was with Russell Wilson in his prime, not with Geno Smith trying to prove he’s more than a career backup who caught lightning in a bottle for one season. Speaking of Smith, let’s talk about this “upgrade” at quarterback.

Geno Smith: From Hero to Zero (Again)

The Raiders traded for Geno Smith like they’d just landed Aaron Rodgers in his prime. Reality check: Smith had one decent season with Seattle before regressing to his career mean. Now he’s supposed to work miracles behind an offensive line. Smith’s success in Seattle came within a system perfectly tailored to his limitations, with weapons like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett making his life easier. In Vegas, he’s got… well, let’s just say the receiving corps isn’t exactly striking fear into defensive coordinators’ hearts.

The Defense: All Smoke, No Fire

The author of that rosy BetMGM piece wants you to believe the Raiders’ defense is primed for a bounce-back year. They point to facing easier offensive competition and getting healthier. But here’s what they’re not telling you: this defense lost key pieces and added aging veterans who are clearly past their prime. Devin White couldn’t stay healthy or effective in Tampa Bay. Jamal Adams has been a shell of his former self since leaving the Jets. Imagine saying that 5 years ago. These aren’t upgrades, they’re desperate moves by a front office trying to convince themselves they’re competitive.

The Schedule Reality Check

While it’s true the Raiders might face slightly easier offensive competition, they still play in the AFC West. That means six games against teams that will likely finish ahead of them: the Kansas City Chiefs (obviously), the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs alone will probably sweep them again, because that’s what good teams do to bad ones. The Chargers and Broncos both made the playoffs last year and improved their rosters.

Take the Under and Thank Me Later

Here’s the bottom line: the Raiders are a poorly constructed roster with aging veterans, questionable depth, and a coach who’s trying to recreate magic from a decade ago. They play in a tough division, face legitimate questions at quarterback, and have an offensive line that might get Smith killed. The under on 7.5 wins isn’t just the smart play, it’s practically printing money. This Raiders team will struggle to reach six wins, let alone eight. Save yourself the heartache of believing in fools’ gold and bet accordingly.