List of regression candidates paints a much easier road for the Packers to succeed in 2025

The Green Bay Packers had an 11-6 record last season. If you think about it that way, it looks much better than saying the team was third in its division. It was a rare instance of the NFC North being insanely strong, with the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings having two of the best three records in the conference.

The good news for the Packers is that, even though the Chicago Bears are a candidate to improve in 2025, the Lions and Vikings have been pointed out as teams likely to regress. And that, combined with a healthier Jordan Love, could put Green Bay in position to win the division for the first time since 2021.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell made a list of teams most likely to be worse in 2025, and both NFC North rivals are a part of it.

Reasons for the Lions to regress

Detroit had a highly efficient team in 2024, tied for the best record in the entire league, and boasted a talented and well-schemed offense. It wasn't luck; it was, in fact, a strong roster. Credit where it's due, the Lions still have a great team, but there are just too many variables to expect a repetition of the 15-2 record.

The Lions lost both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Even if you respect and value Dan Campbell, it's hard to imagine both sides of the ball could keep being as well-coached as they were with new coordinators. Several position coaches also followed Johnson and Glenn to their new teams.

Additionally, the Lions lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement and right guard Kevin Zeitler to free agency. And this stat from Barnwell is notable:

"Every quarterback gets worse under pressure, but Goff has bigger splits than any other passer," Barnwell wrote. "Over the past three seasons, he leads all quarterbacks in Total QBR (78.2) when opposing defenses do n't get home with pressure. When they do, his 17.6 QBR is 28th."

The Lions are still a good team and could win the division for the third straight season. But it's absolutely fair to expect a worse version of a group that has gone through so much.

Reasons for the Vikings to regress

The Vikings are extremely well-coached by Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, and ultimately, the performance of quarterback J.J. McCarthy should dictate how good this team will be. However, Minnesota was excellent in basically every unsustainable metric last year, which tends to mean regression in the following season.

First, the Vikings were 8-1 in one-score games. That's basically impossible to keep up — they were 4-8 combined in O'Connell's first two seasons as a head coach.

On defense, they were too reliant on turnovers. The team led the league in takeaways (33) and was second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), according to Barnwell. And this is intriguing:

"Looking at 2000 to 2023 and the teams that ranked in the top five in turnovers per drive — as the Vikings did a year ago — just 17% of those teams finished in the top five again the following season," Barwell wrote.

The Vikings have a good offensive foundation, but repeating their 14-3 record seems highly unlikely, unless McCarthy goes nuclear in his first real season as an NFL quarterback.

The NFC North is still a hard division, and all four teams are expected to have tough schedules. But if the Lions and Vikings are not as good as they were a year ago, life would be much easier for the Packers on their path to the playoffs.