Mel Kiper’s Biggest QB Draft Hits and Misses Over the Last 10 Years

2025: Shedeur Sanders Slides

• Kiper’s QB1: Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
• Actual Draft: Round 5, Pick 144 (Cleveland Browns)

Mel Kiper had Sanders on top of his final quarterbacks board, but NFL teams did not agree. Sanders’ freefall into the fifth round stunned fans and analysts alike and became the headline of Day 3 of the draft.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1915789532785524958

Meanwhile, Kiper’s QB2, Cam Ward, went number one overall to the Tennessee Titans and hardly anyone noticed.

Biggest discrepancy: Sanders’ dramatic fall despite Kiper’s number one ranking.

2024: The Chalk Holds

• Kiper’s QB1: Caleb Williams, USC
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 1 (Chicago Bears)
• Kiper’s QB3: Jayden Daniels, LSU
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 2 (Washington Commanders)

In 2024, Kiper’s rankings largely mirrored the draft board. Williams, Daniels, and Drak Maye (Kiper’s QB2) all went top three.

https://twitter.com/WamNFL/status/1749529497836122252

Biggest takeaway: Minimal deviation among top quarterbacks

2023: The Will Levis Slide

• Kiper’s QB3: Will Levis, Kentucky
• Actual Draft: Round 2, Pick 133 (Tennessee Titans)

Levis was a polarizing figure throughout the pre-draft process.

While Kiper slotted him firmly into his top three, NFL teams balked, and Levis endured an uncomfortable first-round snub before finding a home early on Day 2.

https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1616217193829617665

Biggest discrepancy: First-round grade vs. second-round reality

2022: The Malik Willis Mystery

• Kiper’s QB1: Malik Willis, Liberty
• Actual Draft: Round 3, Pick 86 (Tennessee Titans)

The 2022 class was a quarterback desert, and teams showed it on draft night.

Despite Kiper’s praise, Willis fell to the third round, as did fellow prospects Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder. Only Kenny Pickett (Kiper’s QB2) cracked the first round.

https://twitter.com/ESPNPlus/status/1443688005634596864

Biggest discrepancy: An entire class was devalued compared to Kiper’s expectations.

2021: Five in the First

• Kiper’s QB1: Trevor Lawrence
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 1 (Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Kiper’s QB2-5: Justin Fields (2), Zach Wilson (3), Mac Jones (4), Trey Lance (5)
• Actual Draft: Wilson (P2 NYJ), Trey Lance (P3 SF), Fields (P11 CHI), Jones (P15 NE)

Kiper’s big board aligned almost perfectly with how the NFL drafted. All five quarterbacks went in the first round.

Biggest takeaway: A rare year when Mel Kiper Jr. got the round quarterbacks were taken correctly.

2020: Eason Overhyped

• Kiper’s QB4: Jacob Eason, Washington
• Actual draft: Round 4, Pick 122 (Indianapolis Colts)

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert all lived up to their lofty draft status, but Eason — considered by Kiper as a potential Day 2 talent — plummeted deep into Round 4 and struggled to stick in the NFL.

Jacob Eason was predicted by Mel Kiper Jr. to go round-two pick 44 to the Indianapolis Colts.

https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1250445022891130881

Biggest discrepancy: A Kiper day two pick going in the 4th round.

2019: Giants Shake Things up

• Kiper’s QB4: Daniel Jones, Duke
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 6

Few saw Jones going this high in the draft. The Giants stunned draft night audiences by making him the second quarterback off the board, well ahead of Kiper’s ranking.

Kiper had him as the third-ranked quarterback and going to the Patriots with the 29th pick.

https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1073288443772461057

Biggest discrepancy: Jones’ early selection at 6th overall.

2018: Shocking Number 1

• Kiper’s QB4: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
• Actual draft: Round 1, Pick 1 (Cleveland Browns)

Heading into the draft, Mayfield was not widely viewed as the number one quarterback.

Kiper had Baker Mayfield as the fourth-ranked quarterback in his rankings.

https://twitter.com/Irish_fan_81/status/1916150226777235954

Biggest discrepancy: Kiper’s fourth-ranked quarterback going number 1.

2017: Mahomes the Afterthought

• Kiper’s QB3: Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
• Actual Draft: Round 1, Pick 10

Kiper was higher on Deshaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky, but history shows Mahomes should’ve been everyone’s QB1.

It’s a reminder that no one — not even the best evaluators — saw Mahomes’ superstardom coming.

https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/851885719471697921

Biggest discrepancy: Underestimating the eventual league MVP.

2016: Hackenberg Hopes Dashed

• Kiper’s QB5: Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
• Actual Draft: Round 2, Pick 51 (New York Jets)

Hackenberg had the size and arm strength, but his NFL career never materialized. Despite Kiper’s second-round evaluation, Hackenberg never started a regular-season game.

https://twitter.com/nittanyrich/status/667456526496481280

Biggest discrepancy: A cautionary tale about projection over production.

Kiper’s Actually Decent (Not the Outcome Wanted)

Over the past decade, Mel Kiper Jr. has consistently been one of the draft’s leading voices, and his quarterback evaluations have shaped countless conversations leading up to draft night.

When it comes to matching his QB rankings to where players were actually drafted, Kiper has been accurate about 58% of the time — meaning his top-ranked quarterbacks were either drafted first at the position or very close to it in over half of the drafts.

However, when discrepancies happen, they are often dramatic.

Cases like Malik Willis (2022), Shedeur Sanders (2025), and Will Levis (2023) remind us that even highly respected evaluations can fall completely out of sync with how NFL general managers view prospects behind closed doors.

Likewise, Patrick Mahomes (2017) and Daniel Jones (2019) proved that quarterbacks with relatively lukewarm pre-draft grades can still be prioritized early — sometimes with great success, sometimes not.

In years like 2021 (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones) and 2024 (Williams, Maye, Daniels), Kiper’s rankings aligned closely with the final results, showcasing the strength of consensus when elite QB talent is obvious.

But more often, the quarterback position reflects the wild variance of the draft itself: team-specific needs, coaching preferences, system fits, interviews, medicals, and private workouts can all heavily sway decision-making.

Ultimately, Kiper’s record shows he is better than most at projecting the quarterback landscape — but even he is not immune to the unpredictability and volatility that define NFL quarterback evaluations.

A final number to consider:

• Approximate Match Rate (within 1 draft slot at QB position): 58%

• Major Miss Rate (falling 2+ rounds beyond projection): 24%

• Surprise Risers beyond ranking: 18%