Miami Has a Chop Robinson Problem

No wonder Chris Grier confidently dropped his name in his post-round one press conference.

What else stood out for me with Robinson was that, although he looked like a souped-up turbo at the lights waiting for a green light, he’d often rush past the QB’s landmark. There was also some stiffness in his hips at the very top of the arc, and again when he had to work back down; he was eliminated by power far too often, and worst of all, he was a real liability against the run. In fact, when I watched him play West Virginia, I was stunned to see him consistently washed away by Mountaineer tight ends Kole Taylor and Treylan Davis, who walked him out of the play time and again.

Of course, hindsight is a beautiful thing, and to get a high-sided edge rusher with the sort of explosion that Robinson possessed at pick 21, even as a sub-package threat, wasn’t the worst thing Chris Grier could have done. Especially given the state of the pass rush room heading out of the 2023/24 season. But I was worried about Robinson’s transition, because despite the athleticism – he was #9th on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List – so much of playing edge in the modern NFL wasn’t easily translatable to his game. And scratching away at my brain was the worry that if all he ever became was a sub-package rusher, that would be yet another first-round misstep.

What gave me pause was the fact that new defensive co-ordinator Anthony Weaver had had success with similar players in the past: with Jerry Hughes in 2013 who’d had only five sacks his first three seasons in Indianapolis before being traded to Buffalo and breaking out with a career high ten takedowns under Weaver’s tutelage; same with Jabal Sheard who had eight sacks in 2015 in Houston; and to a lesser extent with Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo in Baltimore. I felt like the introduction of his scheme away from the pressure sets of Brian Flores, the two high shell looks, and the post-snap coverage changes of Vic Fangio could help Robinson. In his first game as defensive co-ordinator, Weaver ran multiple 1 to 2 high disguise structures, different variations of 3 Buzz, all out zero blitzes, zone quarters and 1/2 combos by formation, 3 Cloud, multiple two deep corner sims, a variation of Spike 1 Rat, 3 and 2 deep fire zones, different variations of Cover 3 (zone, match) and even some Bear and Tilt 6-1 looks. All of which meant that Robinson would get his chances for sacks and pressures because teams simply didn’t know where to look next: the eye candy on the back end would provide opportunities for hungry pass rushers.

However, it was a slow start for Robinson, and it wasn’t until the 8th game – a 30-27 defeat in Buffalo – that he got his first career sack, finishing the season with six and showing steady improvement throughout the campaign. Sure, he wasn’t offering much on early downs, but he was beginning to get after the QB, and his pressure rate was good enough to believe that 2025 might really see him break out.

Unfortunately, it didn’t. And worryingly for Miami, he’s reverted to his collegiate type.

With a game left in his sophomore campaign, Robinson has just 10 tackles and four sacks, none of which have been conventional pass rush “wins” where he’s beaten a tackle. Of course, it would be ridiculous to suggest that all of Myles Garrett’s, Nik Bonitto’s, or Micah Parsons’s sacks come that way. But a deeper dive into the tape shows significant worries. His first sack came in week two against the Patriots on a broken play where he was barely touched by anyone but a passing tight end who bumps into him; his second didn’t arrive for an astonishing nine weeks after the first, when he shared half a coverage sack with Zeke Biggers against the Saints; he added another takedown later in the same game when he worked back to Tyler Shough after rushing past the landmark, taking the QB down from behind as he started to run. Then, against the Jets, he recorded a strip sack after beating tight end Jeremy Ruckert, before adding another half sack versus the Bengals when Joe Burrow was flushed from the pocket into his arms by a Tyrel Dodson blitz after Robinson had been eliminated from the play by RT Amarius Mims.

The stark numbers are even worse when you extrapolate them. First of all, he’s played just 383 defensive snaps, almost exclusively from the LEO spot (245) or as a traditional LOLB (40). Compare that to Myles Garrett who’s played almost double the snaps that Robinson has (710). Worse still is that fellow 2024 draft class members Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu have played 745 and 617 snaps, respectively.

But where it gets really bad is when you compare the three statistical categories outside of sacks that specifically correlate to affecting the pocket and the quarterback – pressures, hits, and hurries.

Taking five of the very best edge rushers in 2025, Garrett has 71 pressures, 34 hits, and 35 hurries. His pass rush win percentage is 17.9% despite being almost exclusively doubled or chipped all season long. Micah Parsons has 79 pressures, 27 hits, and 51 hurries, with an absurd pass rush win percentage of 19,4%, all this despite often rushing through the A gap, where he can sometimes find himself triple-teamed. Houston’s Will Anderson has a mind-blowing 87 pressures, 22 hits, and 55 hurries at a similarly crazy 21.8% pass rush win percentage. Denver’s Nik Bonitto has 64 pressures, 27 hits, and 35 hurries with an 18.4% pass rush win percentage. And Anderson’s partner in crime – and Chris Grier’s comparison to Robinson – Danielle Hunter has 75 pressures, 21 hits, and 53 hurries at 17.7%. Even the two other rushers from the 2024 class that could have ended up in Miami have big numbers: Laiatu Latu has 51 pressures, 15 hits, and 34 hurries at 14.5%; Verse has 72 pressures, 25 hits, and 47 hurries at 15.9%.

Yet Chop Robinson has just 19 pressures, 5 hits, and 15 hurries at an unbelievably underwhelming pass rush win rate of just 8.8%, which ranks him 125th of all edges.

Whichever way you slice it, that’s a huge problem.

Robinson may not play this weekend in Miami’s final game of the season because of the concussion he suffered against the Buccaneers, but if any player was a metaphor for the 2025 campaign and perhaps for Chris Grier’s reign as a whole, it might be him. What’s worrying Dolphins insiders is that the pre-draft issues have come home to roost pretty drastically: he’s not looked likely to graduate from being a sub-package pass rusher. In fact, there are times when he’s been dropped into coverage as part of Weaver’s disguise packages because the DC has shown more trust in players like Matthew Judon in obvious pass rush situations. His run defending has been mediocre at best, and teams have very specifically run at him on early downs when he’s been on the field.

So what next?

Miami’s recent history is littered with draft busts of washed-up dreams. As I’m sitting here writing this, it’s exactly 25 years to the DAY since the franchise last won a playoff game: December 30th, 2000, against the Colts. Tom Brady ‘s career stats at the time were 1 of 3 for 6 yards. None of that is on Chop Robinson, of course. But if the team is to get back to the playoffs, if they’re to finally turn the corner and become a contender, then his play is going to need to improve pretty drastically. And fast. Because suddenly, after a fairly promising rookie season, teams have found him out. The pass rush arsenal lacks counters; he’s proven that despite the get-off speed, he can’t be a consistent dip and rip guy; and he’s not strong enough to hold up at the point in the run game. With Bradley Chubb’s renaissance in the second half of 2025 and the cap considerations, it’s likely that the 29-year-old returns in 2026. But whoever takes on the mantle of GM will have to look long and hard at the edge position in round 1 simply because Robinson hasn’t come close to the level that was hoped. The last thing the Dolphins need is to spend more early-round capital on a position they hoped they’d solve with his selection.

It’s absurd to write him off after just two seasons and to call him a bust. But believe me, alarm bells are ringing.

And they’re ringing hard.