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Minnesota Vikings continue to be overlooked for one singular reason and it doesn't make sense

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Tyler Forness | Last updated May 28, 2025 4:00 PM ET

The Minnesota Vikings are in a position to make waves this year thanks to a very deep roster. Even so, not everyone is a believer, as ESPN's analytics writer Seth Walder used FPI to make projections for the 2025 season and they aren't viewed highly at all. Why? Once again, it's the presence of J.J. McCarthy.

If there is a curveball, it's that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024. But the Vikings relied on their defense -- which ranked third in EPA per play -- last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate.

Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after missing his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. While he might possess more upside than last year's starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy's downside is almost certainly lower. Therefore, the FPI gives Minnesota only a 19% chance to win the division and a 43% chance to reach the playoffs.

Vikings continue to be overlooked

It's really interesting to read everyone be so low on the Vikings. Each individual time seems to boil down to one thing: McCarthy has never played a down in the National Football League.

Now, that's a fair point. It does present quite the variable for the Vikings when it comes to this season. However, rarely does the analysis presented mention once how good the roster is on an overall level.

Why is there never any discussion about the roster? It's always solely about McCarthy, but not about the group of weapons he has at his disposal. Any quarterback throwing to the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson will be elevated significantly more than the average situation. Plus the improved offensive line will be significantly better than it was the previous year.

The analysis is incredibly lazy, not because of the conclusion, but the way they describe the Vikings is. If McCarthy is an average starting quarterback in the NFL as a rookie, this team with a stout defense can still win 11-12 games. He doesn't need to be great, just solid for the Vikings to take a step foward.

The defense also got stronger up front with both Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. This team is very solid from front to back, and that will significantly ease the burden on McCarthy.

Don't be fooled by the lack of NFL snaps McCarthy has, the team can make up for his growing pains.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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