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Aug 21, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll during the second quarter against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Smith-Imagn Images Mark Smith-Imagn Images

New Analysis Doesn't Offer Much Hope for NY Giants' Rise in Win Column

Originally posted on New York Giants on SI
By Alex House | Last updated Sep 5, 2025 3:00 AM ET

The New York Giants have made their pitch to the fans, selling them on a future that includes an eye-catching defense and a promising quarterback in Jaxson Dart.

Many are gradually buying back in, for they recognize some of the philosophies that helped create the most exhilarating moments in franchise history.

There is limited optimism outside the Big Blue fandom, however. The media has been especially critical of the new-look Giants, forecasting only marginal improvement.

Austin Mock of The Athletic is maintaining that same bleak outlook for the squad, using a projection model to determine the record of every NFL team for the upcoming campaign.

His model, which "takes play-by-play data and creates offensive and defensive projections for each team," sets New York's win total at 5.6 and its playoff odds at a painfully low 4.6 percent. Given those grim predictions, it seems futile to ask about Super Bowl odds -- 0.2 percent for those wondering.

Those figures were second-worst in the NFC, above only the New Orleans Saints.

It should be noted that this model was calculated before the Dallas Cowboys traded multi-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers, so perhaps that could have at least led to a slight bump. The results are unfavorable regardless.

Mock gives the defense an obligatory shoutout, but he has serious concerns about the offense. And they extend beyond 36-year-old quarterback Russell Wilson.

"Though we likely won't see him to start the season, Jaxson Dart is the future at quarterback, and while throwing to star receiver Malik Nabers should make his life easier, I don't have high hopes for this offense, no matter who is playing QB," Mock writes.

Those qualms are certainly reasonable. The offensive line crumbled after Andrew Thomas suffered a season-ending foot injury six games into last year, and the wide receiver group is mostly the same. An aging signal-caller who scuffled in the back half of the 2024-25 campaign can theoretically only do so much.

The good news is that the data can be rendered meaningless once the games actually begin.

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The NY Giants can grow

Wilson can prove that he could still lead a professional-looking offense after throwing for 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns in 11 regular-season starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offensive line can show that it is deeper with fifth-round draft pick Marcus Mbow coming aboard.

The defensive line can demonstrate far more competence against the run if Roy Robertson-Harris and Darius Alexander give Dexter Lawrence some support.

If the Giants can cover up those glaring weaknesses, or at least mitigate them, then their strengths will be accentuated. They will rely heavily on a stout pass-rushing attack that consists of veteran playmakers Dexter Lawrence II and Brian Burns, exalted rookie Abdul Carter, and the sometimes overlooked Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Those four men should give the Jevon Holland and Paulson Adebo-led secondary a chance to make plays on some ill-advised passes. Bobby Okereke and Micah McFadden could contain offenses at the second level of the defense and prevent an excess of chunk plays. Scoring on New York should be a trying task, assuming everyone performs up to their capabilities.

John Jones-Imagn Images

Even if people do not see the Giants as a potential sleeper in the NFC, this team has the firepower to earn at least six wins. Now, it must maintain its poise against a stacked schedule.

The Giants will face the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Packers, and they also have two games each against the two teams that competed in last season's NFC Championship -- one of which is the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Although the road will be rugged, this squad can get by without completely breaking down.

Competitiveness is a reachable goal. New York should not become obsessed with outside opinions, but perhaps it can use some of these projections as extra inspiration heading into the season. It is the Giants versus the world, and that can be a powerful thing.

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This article first appeared on New York Giants on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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