These teams met twice during the regular season. New England won the first game on a super windy Monday night in Orchard Park, but the Bills proved they were the best team in the AFC East by winning at Foxboro in dominant fashion. It will be cold in Buffalo once again on Saturday but it is hard not to like the home side.
New England head coach Bill Belichick might have done his best coaching job this year. With a rookie quarterback and a strong defense, he got the Patriots back into the playoffs. The challenge is that their offense has a very low ceiling and playoff games are usually won with big plays.
Buffalo did not have the regular season they were hoping for coming off last year's AFC Championship Game loss to Kansas City. Still, I love quarterback Josh Allen, and they had the league's best defense during the season, first in points and yards allowed. This is a tough team that knows how to win. They are definitely not in awe of the Pats anymore, 3-1 SU over the last 2 seasons.
New England Patriots (10-7) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Saturday, January 15th
8:15 PM ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds (as of Thursday, January 13th)
Spread: Patriots +4 (-110), Bills -4 (-110)
Moneyline: Patriots +169, Bills -203
Bets I Like
Buffalo Bills -4 (-110)
When the Bills won on the road against the Pats it was one of the more impressive wins of the season. The loss to New England on "MNF" was an outlier due to the extreme conditions, and this team seems to be peaking at the right time. Four is a dead number but I like Buffalo to win by at least a touchdown so I am willing to take it.
Buffalo Bills Over 24.5 Points (-105)
The Bills finished 3rd in the NFL in scoring at just over 28 PPG. Here is a simple observation, when they win, they score. In every single one of their victories this season, the Bills have scored at least 26 points, including 33 points at New England just a few weeks ago. That hook is always a killer but taking the Bills on the over for a team total has been profitable most of the season.
Mac Jones Over 18.5 Pass Completions (-105)
The Pats lets Jones throw the ball, it just never seems to go very far down the field. I am assuming the Bills are going to load up to stop the run and that the Patriots will be mostly losing in this game, a combination that should create an opportunity for Jones to throw the ball a lot. He has been over this total in three of his last four games, with the lone exception being the loss to Buffalo. The attempts were there, he just had a really bad game. An average performance should get this one to cash.