New Orleans Saints ceiling and floor for 2023

New Orleans continues to retool its roster each offseason instead of settling on a years-long rebuild. That decision could very well lead to the team making the playoffs for the first time since 2020 or the team's most losses since 2005.

Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Saints in 2023:

Ceiling: 12-5

The offseason addition of QB Derek Carr breathed fresh life into the Saints, and the early word out of New Orleans during workouts is the marriage is off to a great start. It began shortly after Carr signed, with Michael Thomas celebrating the move after many expected the Saints to cut ties with their talented, oft-injured former All-Pro wideout. Head coach Dennis Allen anticipates Thomas will be ready for the regular season, but even if he is a no-go, the Saints have exciting talent on offense.

Second-year pro Chris Olave is one of the best young receivers in the league. He finished last season second among rookies in receiving yards (1,042) and tied for second in receptions (72). WR Rashid Shaheed, also entering his second year, burst onto the scene as an undrafted free agent, scoring touchdowns of 44 yards and 53 yards on his first two NFL touches. 

New Orleans plays the second-easiest schedule based on last year's records and, per ESPN's projections, it has a win probability greater than 50 percent in 14 of its 17 games. The defense returns the majority of a secondary that ranked second in the league last season, allowing 184.4 yards per game. In a division with questionable quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder and rookie Bryce Young, the strength of the secondary could be massive.

Floor: 6-11 

Andy Dalton was underwhelming last season, but he was a step up from the Trevor Siemian-Ian Book duo that started five games in 2021 without a win. Even so, the Saints finished with a worse record in 2022 (7-10) than in 2021 (9-8). Carr is an upgrade over Dalton, but that doesn't mean it will translate to the field. 

New Orleans relies on one of the oldest rosters in football, which could hurt the Saints against speedier, younger opponents. They also had problems stopping the run last season and are essentially starting from scratch on the D-line after adding three tackles this offseason.

RB Alvin Kamara could miss time pending the outcome of his forthcoming trial on battery charges.  The team signed free agent Jamaal Williams and drafted Kendre Miller to insure itself against a possible Kamara suspension, but his singular playmaking ability is impossible to match.

Carr must improve on his ineffective 2022 when he finished ranked 24th in passer rating. If he struggles again and the defense is shaky against the run, New Orleans will be in for another long season.