NFC South Week 5 predictions: Saints-Patriots could get ugly

Carolina seeks its first win. Atlanta and New Orleans try to keep pace with the Bucs, who are on a bye. After a 3-0 Week 4, here are predictions for Week 5.

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET)

Per ESPN, the Texans rank second in pass-rush win rate (59 percent). The Falcons are 30th in pass block win rate (44 percent), which doesn't bode well for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder, one of the league's worst quarterbacks through four weeks. Over the last two weeks (both losses), Ridder is 40-of-69 (58 percent) for 392 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown and two interceptions while being sacked 11 times. The good news for the Falcons is they return home, where they are 2-0, in Week 5.

Through four weeks, the Offensive Rookie of the Year race is between two players: Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson. Stroud has yet to throw an interception but that could change against an opportunistic Falcons defense led by 2023 free-agent addition Jessie Bates III. He already has three interceptions and two forced fumbles, and Atlanta's ability to force mistakes at home will make the difference.

PREDICTION: Falcons, 20-17

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET)

Detroit is one of two teams in the top five in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) on offense and defense. The Lions are a legitimate playoff contender while the Panthers are stuck in a multi-year rebuild. 

Rookie quarterback Bryce Young, who was selected No. 1 overall in the 2023 draft, has struggled in his first three starts. He is 63-of-103 (65 percent) for 503 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), two touchdowns and two interceptions. Young has been asked to be the entire offense with the rushing attack struggling.

The Lions are fourth in the league in first-quarter scoring (7.8 points per game) while Carolina ranks 21st (3.3 points per game). If Detroit builds an early lead, it will tee off on Young. The Lions are tied for seventh in the league with 13 sacks; Young has the seventh-highest sack rate (9.6 percent), taking 11 in 114 dropbacks.

PREDICTION: Lions, 27-13

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (1 p.m. ET)

Something has to give. 

New Orleans is 31st in pass rush win rate (31 percent) while the Patriots are last in pass block win rate (40 percent). The Saints have dropped their previous two and outscored 44-9 over the last five quarters. As big of a mess as the Saints are, the Patriots are arguably in worse shape. They are coming off the ugliest loss of the Bill Belichick loss, a 38-3 blowout against the Cowboys. Quarterback Mac Jones was benched in the third quarter after going 12-of-21 for 150 yards and two interceptions. 

Tight end Hunter Henry is the team's leading receiver, but the Saints have been among the best at stopping tight ends. Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon (bicep) would have wrecked the Saints offensive line if healthy. On Monday, the team announced he will be out indefinitely, along with rookie first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder). That's a massive blow to New England. The Saints couldn't take advantage of depleted Packers and Bucs rosters, but if they are serious about taking the division for the first time since 2020, Week 5 is a must-win.

PREDICTION: Saints, 16-13