NFL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball against Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5). Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'Beat the Line' moves for the divisional round

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/16/24

What a pleasant Super Wild Card Weekend it was for us here on "Beat the Line" and for those following from home. We targeted the unders in Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles, created closing line value on both and cashed both tickets in the end.

That's a wild-card sweep to bring our against the spread record to 29-19-1 on the season. Let's finish the season strong, starting with our two early picks for the divisional round coming up this weekend.

2023-24 record: 29-12-8 CLV, 29-19-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The betting market is not giving the Packers enough credit for what they've done over the past two months. Since Thanksgiving, the Packers have gone 6-2 while averaging 28.2 points per game. Their lowest point total in that span came in a 17-9 win against the Chicago Bears, and they still put up 432 yards of offense on a ridiculous 7.2 yards per play in that game.

Jordan Love is playing his best football of the season, and Aaron Jones is the healthiest he's been since Week 1. It won't be easy to keep this rolling against the ferocious 49ers defense, but we've seen teams struggle in this spot before. San Francisco rested its starters in Week 18, so the team could be rusty coming off two bye weeks. The Packers, on the other hand, have all the momentum after dropping 48 against the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round.

This spread is too high, so grab it now before it drops.

The bet to make: Packers +10 (-110 BetMGM)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

We were dying to see a Chiefs +3 pop up when this matchup became official, but every sportsbook has this priced closer to +2.5. If we can find a cheap +3 on Kansas City (-115 or better), we'll scoop that up in a heartbeat.

Since the +2.5 isn't as appetizing, we're going in a different direction.

Travis Kelce, after showing his age late in the regular season, got back on track with 71 yards on seven catches against the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round. He would've finished with more than 100 yards if not for a few uncharacteristic drops in the freezing cold weather. Over his last four games against Buffalo, Kelce is averaging 78.3 receiving yards. That includes an 83-yard performance against the Bills earlier this season.

Kelce should be in line for double-digit targets again this week, so this line isn't high enough. It will only go up as we get closer to kickoff.

The bet to make: Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

More must-reads: