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Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Conference Championship Weekend picks and preview

By Chris Mueller | Last updated 1/26/23

Championship weekend is nearly upon us, and there isn’t an impostor among this year’s final four. The AFC Championship Game is a rematch, right down to the venue, from last year. Kansas City and a gimpy – or is he – Patrick Mahomes will look to avenge last year’s come-from-ahead loss, while Joe Burrow will try to move to 4-0 against the Chiefs in his career and continue the Bengals’ run of vanquishing big-time teams and big-time quarterbacks. The NFC Championship Game pits the conference’s top two seeds; a 49ers team that hasn’t lost since October 23^rd and an Eagles team that didn’t lose until November 14^th and was only beaten once all season when Jalen Hurts started. Philly also boasts what is likely the league’s best roster, top to bottom, and just finished bludgeoning the Giants in a game some thought might be challenging. There is a very good chance we get two great contests this weekend, and no Super Bowl matchup would feel like a dud. Let’s get to the games.

Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.

NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold

Last week: 2-2 (Season: 137-140-4)

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

SAN FRANCISCO (15-4) AT PHILADELPHIA (15-3) (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET)

TV: FOX LINE: Philadelphia -2.5

This, simply put, is the matchup we all deserve. The Niners and Eagles are powerhouses, clearly the NFC’s two best teams this season, and the only teams from that conference that ever felt like true, credible threats to whichever team emerged from an AFC that looked stronger all year. The game is the rare battle where neither team has anything approaching a real weakness – San Francisco is 6^th in scoring offense and 1^st in scoring defense, while the Eagles are 3^rd and 8^th, respectively – and both teams are well-equipped to neutralize the other. Any questions about the Eagles stumbling to the playoffs were answered in emphatic fashion in last week’s throttling of the Giants, and any questions about Brock Purdy were similarly answered when he outplayed Dak Prescott and won a back-alley, old-school slugfest against the Cowboys.

There’s no question that the Eagles have the clear advantage at quarterback, even with Purdy’s shockingly great play thus far. Still, San Francisco’s defense is the rare group that can take all the things the Eagles do easily against other teams and make them very difficult. Who wins probably comes down to a few factors, namely, how banged up are Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell; who wins the battle between the Eagles’ offensive line and the 49ers’ pass rush; how much running does Hurts do, given that his shoulder is still a little tender, and how effective is he when he does it; and does Purdy finally show any real cracks against the best team he’s faced all season? When you go into a game and have no feel whatsoever for what might happen, that’s usually a good sign (just not necessarily for your pick).

Look smart to your friends:

-The Niners’ defense has so many stars that Dre Greenlaw sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, but he’s coming off a season that saw him set a career-high in tackles (127) and passes defensed (6). He’ll be crucial to limiting Philly’s yards after catch, and yards after contact.

-Nick Bosa is one of three finalists for defensive player of the year, but Haason Reddick had a monster season and arguably got overlooked for the award. He was second in the NFL (behind Bosa) with 16 sacks and became the first player since 1982 with 10+ sacks in three straight seasons with three different teams.

The pick: 49ers 26 Eagles 23

☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

CINCINNATI (14-4) AT KANSAS CITY (15-3) (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET)

TV: CBS LINE: Cincinnati -1

It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs playing another home AFC Championship Game (their fifth in a row) as the conference’s top seed and seeing them as an underdog of any sort, even a one-pointer, but here we are. Much of that owes to the uncertainty surrounding the health of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. He was walking without a limp on Wednesday, but one does wonder if this is a little “thou doth protest too much” from the Chiefs about his health. If the ankle is somehow mostly healed, this should be a back-and-forth shootout, with both quarterbacks playing at a very high level. If Mahomes is more compromised than he appears, which is possible, Cincinnati figures to have a clear, if narrow, advantage, even with their offensive line still in tatters.

The other reason that the line is what it is has nothing to do with the Chiefs and everything to do with what Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been able to do to Kansas City. Mahomes and Andy Reid understandably create a fear factor in other teams (or at least their fan bases), but no such thing exists with Cincinnati. Burrow led the Bengals back from 18 points down to win last year’s AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium, beat the Chiefs in Cincy this year, and while he can’t match Mahomes’ spectacular plays, he simply makes ones that are less highlight-reel worthy, but equally devastating. The other factor in the Bengals’ success against the Chiefs is defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, whose defense held Kansas City to three points after halftime in last year’s title game, and shut them out in the fourth quarter of this year’s matchup. Like the NFC Championship Game, almost no outcome here would surprise me, other than either team scoring a blowout victory.

Look smart to your friends:

-It’s not exactly a secret that Ja’Marr Chase is really, really good. He’s tortured the Chiefs thus far in three career games, with four touchdowns in those contests. His 513 career postseason receiving yards are also the second-most ever by a player in their first two seasons.

-Travis Kelce is every bit the terrifying weapon that Chase is, and he’s got an impressive playoff resume of his own. He had 14 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, his seventh-straight playoff game with 95+ receiving yards, the longest streak in NFL history.

The pick: Bengals 30 Chiefs 24

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