NFL DFS Game Previews for the Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos 4:30 p.m. EST

The division round starts in Denver, where the Bills are coming off a big road win in Jacksonville, while the Broncos enjoyed their bye week. I find it a little strange that the Bills are a point-and-a-half favorite, but I think QB Josh Allen accounts for that. Still, that is huge disrespect for the No. 1 seed Broncos.

The key for the Bills will be the running game. Can RB James Cook find running lanes to open up the passing game? Denver is excellent against the run and pass, and I doubt a Bills receiver can step up in this situation. WR Khalil Shakir can be moved around and would be the receiver of choice, but I don’t expect the production he had last week against Jacksonville. It’s risky to play him because he doesn’t score touchdowns, and we are relying solely on volume and yardage.

TE Dalton Kincaid may be the best choice because tight ends have had good games against the Broncos. I hate fading QB Josh Allen because of his upside, but for him to take down slates, he has to do it with his legs, and I’m afraid the Broncos defense is going to be too fast for him to get outside the pocket and run. I don’t see the Bills scoring a ton of points through the air, and if you think they’re going to win, I would focus on Cook and that defense. Also, Kincaid will be worth a shot because it may not take much to be the highest scoring tight end on the slate.

The key for Denver will be the same. Can they run the football against a Bills run defense that has been leaky? Unfortunately for Denver, they haven’t been able to run the ball despite giving RB RJ Harvey a ton of volume. Something has to give, but I don’t think Harvey will put up a huge game on the ground because Buffalo has been much better against the run as of late. He could have a solid game and add a little bit in the passing game, but he’s going to need to score a touchdown to be in the winning lineups. As for the passing game, QB Bo Nix is up against a solid Bills’ pass defense, but they will give up a big play or two. Who is going to be that receiver who steps up? WR Courtland Sutton should get the most volume, but some teams give him blanket coverage, which means the ball could be spread around to a group of receivers who usually don’t score more than 10 points.

In conclusion, I think this will be a low-scoring nail-biter, giving the edge to the Broncos at home. I’m not expecting huge passing numbers, which makes me more interested in the running backs than the passing game, but I always have to be aware of Josh Allen’s upside as a QB who can score touchdowns. I will have very little ownership from this game.

Saturday, January 17

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks 8:00 p.m. EST

These two teams met just a few weeks ago, with home-fieldadvantage on the line. We saw a low-scoring game dominated by the Seahawks defense. Will we see a repeat, or will there be more scoring? I have a hunch the score will go over the Vegas 45 total, which gives this game a bit of appeal for me, especiallyif we are playing only the Saturday slate.

I made the mistake of fading RB Christian McCaffrey last week. It looked suitable for 50 minutes, but then he scored two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, making him a must-have player. I know he didn’t have great success in their last matchup, but he was close to the end zone, and he should get a ton more volume with TE George Kittle out. I’m not going all in on CMC, but he will make up half of my main slate lineups and 75% of my Saturday-only lineups.

It’s going to be tough to pass to the receivers because of Seattle’s pass rush and pass defense. Which means I’m out on QB Brock Purdy, but he can get the ball to TE Jake Tonges, making him a viable start at his price. Many might try to chase the points and roster WR Demarcus Robinson, but I’m going to fade along with the rest of the receivers.

The last time these teams met, the 49ers gave up 17-plus fantasy points to both running backs Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker. I think both could be viable again, but I prefer Charbonnet because he’s getting the red zone work and scoring the touchdowns. He has scored touchdowns in three straight games and has scored in all but one of his home games.

Last time we saw Sam Darnold in the playoffs, he laid an egg, but he was under a lot of duress against an excellent defense. He should have an easier time this week, especially if they can run the football. Of course, the main target will be WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but JSN hasn’t put up big numbers of late. He still gets the targets, but he’s not getting touchdown scoring in only four games. Still, he must make half of my lineups on volume alone, because if he does score, he becomes a player you need to have.

Can anybody else step up? WR Cooper Kupp is popping in the DFS hero Simulator as they are predicting him to have a 45% chance to be in the winning lineups, but I really don’t trust it. I have a sneaky suspicion WR Rashid Shaheed could pop a big one, as he had chances in their last game, but he was overthrown. In a short slate, it would just take a few catches and a big bomb for him to make the winning lineups. TE AJ Barner is also a player of interest, as he should get volume, and the optimizer likes him as well. I know Darnold left practice on Thursday with an oblique injury, but that isn’t going to stop me from playing him. His 25% projected ownership may, but his injury will not.

In conclusion, I’m going to have many parts of the Seattle offense focusing on JSN and Charbonnet, while Kupp will make a few lineups, and Shaheed will be in a few sleeper lineups. I’ll bring it back with CMC and Tonges from the 49ers and hope for a much higher scoring game than last time.

Sunday, Jan 18

Houston Texans at New England Patriots 3:00 p.m. EST

This game scares me. It’s a game I don’t want to play, but I feel like everybody doesn’t want to play this game. Both teams have excellent defenses, and I think everyone will want to play under the 41 Vegas total, which always leads me to the over. Another scary feeling I have is that there is nobody from the Texans I want to play, yet they are only three points underdogs on the road vs. the 1 seed. Something isn’t adding up, but then again, I don’t want to overthink it either.

I can’t imagine the Texans running the football as effectively as they did Monday night against the Steelers. I can’t get behind RB Woody Marks as a runner. Can he do enough in the passing game? He hasn’t had many receptions of late, but he can. He is a good pass catcher, and against this defense, he may be needed more in the passing game, especially since the Patriots like to blitz. I can see a scenario where they get a big play or two on screen passes.

Outside of that, where is the production coming from? I don’t think WR Nico Collins will play, as he was wobbling as he went off the field from a concussion. So, do we see WR Christian Kirk explode like he did last week? At his price point, he doesn’t need to, but he hadn’t done anything all year until Monday, so I don’t know if I can play him. At the same time, he could be the go-to guy. I hate being wishy – washy on a player, but that’s the category I have to put Kirk in.

TE Dalton Schultz is my logical candidate because he is more reliable than young receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. I think I’m more apt to play the Patriots defense because the Texans’ offensive line isn’t very good, and we saw QB CJ Stroud struggle last week. He fumbled the ball, had trouble holding onto snaps, and he will throw into coverage. He was lucky the Texans dominated on defense and on the ground. If they had to rely on his arm, they would have been in big trouble, and it doesn’t get better this week vs. a very good Patriots’ pass defense. I think the Patriots’ pass defense may score a touchdown to break the slate. They are expensive, but their ownership is lower because of it.

I don’t want to play the Patriots’ offense, but I’m going to make a case for QB Drake Maye. The Patriots are so well coached and spread the ball around that Maye can find some open spots. Who will get open? I don’t know, and that’s not a good answer, but I can see him spreading balls to eight different receivers. Another case I will make for Maye is his legs. He may have to take off running more than he is accustomed to, and if he can get 50 yards and a touchdown, he’s on his way. Not that I’m banking on it, but that’s how he can make the winning lineups, plus his ownership is projected at only 15%. As for the running game, the backfield is split between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, which cancels them out. Both will have to be used in the passing game, but if I had to choose, it would be Henderson for his ability to score from anywhere on the field.

In conclusion, on paper, this should be a low-scoring game, but luckily, it’s not played on paper. I like both defenses, but I can see a scenario where they set up short fields for the offense. It’s difficult to endorse the offensive players fully, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see TE Dalton Schultz or QB Drake Maye in a winning lineup alongside either defense.

Sunday, Jan 18

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears 6:30 p.m. EST

Now, to the make-or-break game. Many will have a lot of ownership in this game, and since it’s the last game on the slate, we should know where our lineups stand. Will you be on pins and needles needing a big game from QB Matt Stafford, WR Puka Nacua, or TE Colston Loveland? Many of you will be hoping for all to have huge games, so in many instances, this game may be the most important. It’s going to be extremely cold with some wind, but don’t let that get into your head. Play this game as you normally would.

I know many want to start with the Rams passing game, but I think they want to run the football against a Bears defense that allows 5 yards per carry. I know the Bears stuffed the Packers’ run game last week, but the Packers’ offensive line is a mess. Don’t let recency bias fool you. The problem with the Rams’ running game is picking the right running back, as Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are splitting carries. I would be shocked if the Rams do not score a rushing touchdown, so I will be playing one of the backs in many of my lineups, leaning on Williams, as he is the veteran with the better track record.

As for the Rams’ passing game, we know Matt Stafford can throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, so he will make many lineups where I don’t have the Rams’ running game. He has arguably two of the top three receivers on the slate with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. I’m not worried about the weather because Nacua is a do-it-all receiver. I don’t think it’s going to affect him, and we’ve seen Adams play in Green Bay for years, and the weather does not bother him either. I am leaning on the vet Adams, as I think he will score from in close because I think Stafford will trust him in the red zone. Don’t forget about tight ends Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. It may just take a few catches and a touchdown to be the winning tight end. Let’s lean on Parkinson as he has had double-digit points in three straight games.

I think the Bears would love to run the ball, too, because their passing game doesn’t seem to pick up until it’s needed. RB D’Andre Swift is getting more volume than RB Kyle Monangaiand has bigger boom potential. I don’t know how effective he will be, but the Rams can be run on at times. As for the passing game, it’s hard to know what to expect because QB Caleb Williams has been flat to start three straight games, then it just picks up in the late 3rd, early 4th quarter. If they fall behind and rely on that against the Rams, they will be in big trouble because the Rams can rush the passer much better than most teams.

My interest in Williams and that passing game is low, aside from TE Colston Loveland. Loveland has three straight 20-plus games, and he is far and above the best tight end on the slate. As for the receivers, it’s been inconsistent, but DJ Moore has had the better games over the past several weeks. I know many like WR Luther Burden, but he had only two games with more than 15 points all season. Sure, he has the ability, but I can’t rely on that. Same with WR Rome Odunze, who has been hobbled with injuries.

In conclusion, we’ve seen both teams play high-scoring games last week, but I have a feeling this game won’t live up toexpectations. I think the Rams will win, so I like the running game and Adams in the receiving game. I think their defense could make some big plays. As for the Bears, I’m very uncomfortable playing them outside of Loveland. They are just too inconsistent, and I could see the Rams really pressure them into turnovers. Maybe you aren’t like me, and you think the Bears are going to win. If you think the Bears win, you have to look at all aspects of their offense, because they will need to score in the mid- to upper-20s to win this game. I would be inclined to stack Williams with Loveland and either Swift or Moore.