NFL dissatisfied with current onside kick setup

NFL executive VP Troy Vincent said it may be time for a true discussion about altering the play, with CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones noting the onside kick’s increasingly anticlimactic status has disappointed the league. This language once applied to the extra point, and it was then moved back to the 15-yard line. That has brought far more compelling sequences compared to the setup still used at the college level.

Vincent indicated it may be time to revisit a 4th-and-15 alternative here. A frequent offseason topic, the 4th-and-15 alternative has not gained serious traction in the recent past. The league tabled the matter this offseason. Back in 2020, however, some support for the 4th-and-15 play existed. Vincent’s comments are certainly notable from that angle, and the onside kick recovery data has shifted toward the play being a near-foregone conclusion since the seminal rule change banned running starts from kickoff coverage units.

Only one onside kick (out of 21 tries) produced a recovery this season. In 2024, teams trying them were 3-for-50. Prior to the dynamic kickoff’s 2024 implementation — which removed surprise onside efforts and limited declared onside tries to fourth quarters — success rate fell below 8% four times from 2018-23 (per Odds Shark). The NFL banned running starts on kickoffs, as a safety measure, in 2018. From 2010-17, non-surprise onside kicks were recovered by kicking teams 13.2% of the time.

The league will be highly unlikely to reintroduce running starts on onside plays, and the dynamic kickoff looks here to stay. Kick returns are up significantly, thanks to the league moving the touchback line from the 30 to the 35 this offseason, so the 4th-and-15 alternative — or something comparable — will be a storyline to monitor going into the spring meetings, where rule changes launch.

It can be argued teams should not have a play that gives them a reasonable chance of stealing a possession, but the running-start era did provide better odds at recoveries. 4th-and-15 plays would favor those with high-end passing attacks, but they would undoubtedly inject more drama into late-game sequences.

From changing the extra point to adding a seventh playoff team per conference to adjusting the late-season schedule to ensure Christmas Day games occur, the league acts frequently to make viewer-friendly changes. It appears momentum exists for a significant change on special teams, one that will make the quarterback position slightly more valuable than it already is.