NFL Divisional Round prop bets: 49ers vs. Packers

The first NFC game in the Divisional Round will be Saturday night between San Francisco and Green Bay, offering solid betting value for both teams.

The sixth-seeded 49ers are coming off an upset win over the Cowboys, while the Packers are well-rested, owners of the NFC's top seed and home field advantage.

This has the potential to be one of the best games of the weekend, a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship Game that San Francisco won.

For an alternative betting take, check out Matt Wiesenfeld's best bets for this game.

49ers vs. Packers

Digging into how these teams match up, we see opportunity on both ends. The 49ers strength is running the football, which happens to be Green Bay's biggest weakness from an efficiency standpoint.

The Packers offense is one of the best in football, thanks in large part to Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, which makes their passing attack a great target. That also aligns with San Francisco's issues: slowing down wide receivers.

These offensive advantages make the over an intriguing bet, but for now we'll keep the player props rolling.

Davante Adams over 94.5 receiving yards (-110 on FanDuel)

During the regular season, I gravitate towards the secondary and tertiary players from teams, the ones with the lower lines and intriguing roles.

There's something about the playoffs that flips the approach. I want the best players. There's no better skill-position player on the field this Saturday than Davante Adams, Green Bay's WR1.

Before we get to the numbers, let's explore why we want to target the San Francisco secondary.

We did it last week with Amari Cooper, who hit his over, because of how consistently this defense lets up yards to receivers.

On the season, San Francisco has let up the tenth-most yards per game to receivers, and after both Cooper and Cedric Wilson went over last week, the Niners have seen 14 of the last 18 WRs go over their receiving yardage prop.

That's sustained success for their opposition and a trend worth following.

Back to Adams. If we throw out Week 18, a game in which the Packers starters only played a half, you'll see that Adams is consistently seeing double-digit targets, averaging 10.6 per game on the year and 12 per game in his past four.

The star receiver has gone over this 94.5 total in five of his last six games (excluding Week 18), and four straight at home.

Earlier in the season, Adams caught 12 balls on 18 targets for 132 yards against this San Francisco defense. If you put any stock into 2020 performance, Adams had 173 yards against SF last year.

At the end of the day, Adams is Rodgers' top target in a must-win game against a defense that has shown to have leaks in the secondary.

With trends on our side, I love Adams on Saturday night to hit this total.