Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has had one of the most up-and-down careers a running back can have, winning the 2021 rushing title with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns, which ended up being more than he totaled across both the 2022 and 2023 seasons combined.
2024 was Taylor’s bounce-back year, with 1,431 yards (ranked fourth in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns on a struggling Colts offense. Despite this resurgence, NFL executives have dropped Taylor’s ranking from fifth to seventh in ESPN’s recent top 10 running backs poll as they look ahead to 2025.
The question is, is this ranking slide deserved, or does Taylor still have a case to be ranked among the NFL’s top tier of running backs?
Taylor's 2022 and 2023 seasons were marred by injuries, leading to a decline in both his production and the quality of his play. From his award-winning 2021 season through the end of 2023, Taylor’s yards per attempt dropped from 5.5 to 4.4, and his rushing success rate fell from 55.4 to 48.4. It looked like the young star might flame out the way many running backs unfortunately do, with top-tier seasons followed by a string of injuries that ruin their career.
However, Taylor bucked this narrative in 2024, rushing for 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 14 games. His 102.2 yards per game ranked third in the NFL, behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, with the next closest player, Bijan Robinson, over 16 yards behind.
This season vaulted Taylor into rarefied air, according to a stat from ESPN’s piece: Taylor is the first back since Adrian Peterson to reach 6,000 rushing yards and 50 rushing touchdowns within his first five seasons.
Taylor’s bounce-back 2024 season was evident on the field as well. His 2021 season was marked by his elite long speed, with three of the top five fastest ball-carrier speeds that season at 21.83 mph, 22.05 mph, and 22.13 mph. In 2024, Taylor regained that level of athletic dominance with his first run over 20 mph since 2021.
Jonathan Taylor reached a top speed of 21.56 mph on his 58-yard run, his first play as a ball carrier over 20 mph this season, and his fastest since Week 15, 2021.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 10, 2024
Expected Rush Yards: 4
Rushing Yards Over Expected: +54#BUFvsIND | #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/nF2UyOZgPU
This wasn’t a one-time thing either, as Taylor went on to record not one, but two runs over 21 mph in Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans.
Jonathan Taylor reached a top speed of 21.54 mph on his 70-yard TD run, his 2nd play of the game over 21 mph as a ball carrier.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 22, 2024
Anthony Richardson reached 21.29 mph running down the field, the fastest play by a quarterback on a scrimmage play since 2016.#TENvsIND | #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/CWK9O6OdVU
All of this considered, why would Taylor’s 2024 season call for a slide in his ranking? He was one of the most productive running backs in the league, with his performance fueled by his revitalized athletic abilities. It’s hard to see why expectations for Taylor in 2025 would decline, given that he just spent the 2024 season proving why he’s a top-five player at his position.
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