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Saints QB Derek Carr. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

NFL futures, 2 New Orleans Saints bets: Can Carr drive the Saints to the over?

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 7/11/23

The New Orleans Saints will hope to find better quarterback play in 2023 with Derek Carr in what is a wide-open NFC South.

Saints high-level odds

Wins: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125)
To Win Division: +120
To Win Conference: +1300
To Win Super Bowl: +3500

The Saints finished last year at 7-10, in a three-way tie for the worst record in the NFC South. After running some combination of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB for the past two seasons, New Orleans made a move to stabilize the position by signing Derek Carr.

Carr spent the first nine seasons of his career with the Raiders, and immediately slots in as the best quarterback the team has had Drew Brees. Carr figures to have some success in this offense with second-year WR Chris Olave leading the charge. If we can get anything out of Michael Thomas, who has played in just 10 games over the past two seasons, this offense could be scary. Rashid Shaheed was also a bright spot on this offense in limited work last year, averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

Keep an eye on news revolving around running back Alvin Kamara. Kamara is expected to face a suspension stemming from a 2022 incident in Las Vegas, and reports suggest it may be lengthy. That would/will be a blow in the short-term for this New Orleans offense, who will likely lean more on free agent acquisition, RB Jamaal Williams. Williams led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns last year.

On defense, the team's strongest unit is likely their secondary, with Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu headlining the group.

Two futures bets to make on the New Orleans Saints

Under 9.5 wins (-125 DK)

Found under '"Team futures'"
For those who read these every day, you've by now seen that I'm higher on Atlanta and Carolina's prospects in 2023, meaning someone needs to dip down to make room for that belief.

I'm not sold on New Orleans as the presumptive favorite in this division. Yes, Carr should be an upgrade, but I'm also not so sure he's capable of lifting this team on his own.

There are serious concerns in the trenches here, and you cannot win in today's NFL with struggling offensive and defensive line play. That for me is the straw that breaks the camel's back, I'm down on the Saints here.

The looming suspension for Kamara and Michael Thomas's inability to stay on the field both also hamper expectations for what could otherwise be an explosive and exciting offense.

Chris Olave over 5.5 receiving touchdowns (+110 DK)

Found under "Player totals"
I like the price here on Chris Olave finding the end-zone six times in 2023. The 11th pick in the 2022 draft looked the part of a foundational piece for this offense, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with a likely uptick from the QB position.

Olave caught four touchdowns in Year One, but saw 119 targets and led the team's receivers in red zone looks.

Carr has seen at least one of his pass-catchers exceed 6+ touchdowns every single year he's been in the league, and I expect that streak to continue here with New Orleans's WR1.

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