NFL futures bets: 2023 AFC East Division win totals

Miami Dolphins
9.5 Over +100 / Under -120 

Miami showed a lot of potential last season when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. This team is loaded with speed on offense and this looks like it could be the year they translate potential into performance. 

The line here is a little more evenly split. I can see Miami being a factor in the division and in the AFC but you have to be worried when the QB has such a significant injury history. The fact that the division is getting better is not helping either. The over is enticing though. 

2023 Miami Dolphins schedule analysis

The Dolphins have three of their first four games on the road so getting off to a fast start is going to be tough. They have a number of the same tough games as Buffalo below but not the same degree of difficulty as the Bills overall. Offensively, Miami can keep up with anyone. Their injury risk at QB is higher than other teams though.

I am with the market on the Dolphins. Most of the time I get to nine wins and this is with the QB being available all season. Go with the under. 

New York Jets 9.5
Over -145 / Under +125

The biggest move of the offseason was Rodgers coming to the Big Apple. It is easy to look at the Jets' 2022 season and say that the only thing missing was competent QB play and he can still give you that. We think. 

New York should be better than they were a season ago when they got to seven wins with a dismal QB. However, I do think the pricing of this line is more a reflection of market interest in the Rogers addition as much as a true evaluation of where this team is at. The market is asking you to pay a significant premium for a team most think is not very well coached. 

2023 New York Jets schedule analysis

The Jets have a noticeably easier schedule though still far from a stroll through the woods. I am not as bullish on the Jets. Is there talent better? Sure, but it can take some time to integrate a new quarterback. The Rams did a great job with Matthew Stafford in his first season with the team but he was more in his prime and that team was further along than this one, and better coached. 

I really like the under with the Jets thought I might wait because I think it will move in our favor. Against this schedule, they might have a losing record again though. There is a lot of value there. Take the under.  

New England Patriots 7.5
Over -120 / Under +100

The Patriots might be the hardest team in the league to read right now. Once you get past the record of the head coach there is not as much there as you think. 

They have tried to go more traditional in terms of their coaching this season but that is hardly making anyone think this is a team ready for a leap, in fact, with the rest of the division as strong as it is they might have a hard time. They might have got the steal of the draft in Christian Gonzalez, but one cornerback is not going to turn around the whole team. 

2023 New England Patriots schedule analysis

I am surprised that the market is expecting this team to overachieve. I think that might be more like we are not used to seeing the Patriots priced like this. I don't have the stats but they are not usually projected to be a losing team. 

I am on the under with New England and that might be the best bet in the division. Sometimes I only get to four wins with this group. That is a lot to work with.