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Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures bets: 2023 AFC West Division win totals

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 5/20/23

The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl again and as long as QB Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid are there, they are definitely going to be a force to be reckoned with.

The rest of the division is going to be pretty tight as the projected win totals are just one game apart from the Chargers in second to the Raiders in last place.

The Broncos are probably the wild card because they have a new coach in Sean Payton. On the surface, he might cure a lot of what went wrong last season, but we won't know until the fall.

AFC West win totals

Denver Broncos - 8.5
Over -110 / Under -110

After high preseason expectations, everything was off the rails pretty quickly for the Broncos last season. Instead of contending the coach did not even last a full season. This is a reboot, they hope.

This line is priced the same on both sides which means the market sees it as pretty fair. I think that makes sense, things got really bad last year and even though Payton is considered a great coach there is a lot to correct so a really high number would have been easy to bet under. Quarterback Russell Wilson looked old at times last year and there is no guarantee he becomes what he once was. The defense should still be good but when you turn things over nothing is guaranteed.

2023 Denver Broncos schedule analysis

I like Payton a lot. He is a winner and should be able to get more out of Wilson and the offense than they did last year, but that is a pretty low bar. The question is how much he can do and how quickly. Also, even though their defense has good personnel there is never a lock that things stay the same, especially when there are changes at the top. It is reasonable this team should be better and the schedule is not too bad outside of the division.

This one looks very fair. Yes, Denver is going to be improved but they are not going to be elite. Maybe year two is the one where it really pops for Payton. You can really go either way on this one. Maybe wait and see if one side reveals a better payoff.

Kansas City Chiefs - 11.5
Over -140 / Under +120

The sky is the limit for this team. They keep turning the roster over (except for Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce) and winning at a high rate. They are in the zone and seem to be able to do whatever they want and win with their roster.

For the Chiefs to get to 12 wins during the regular season would be no surprise, that is why the pricing is what it is. Kansas City will inevitably have a few frustrating games, they always do, but they are a hard team to count out because of that offense and might be favored in every contest this season. The offense could be better than it was a year ago when it was adjusting to not having speedy WR Tyreek Hill. Which is scary.

2023 Kansas City Chiefs schedule analysis

The schedule makers actually gave the champs a pretty easy schedule early on with home games against Detroit and Chicago in the first stretch. The schedule does get more difficult than that but there are no stretches where it looks like they will really struggle. No scheduling losses so to speak. The thing we might have to worry about is whether they play hard late depending on what is at stake for them for playoff seeding.

I think that even though it is juiced, the over is the better play. There is no team the Chiefs can't beat and it is hard to find six losses on the schedule with the talent they have.

Las Vegas Raiders - 7.5
Over +130 / Under 7.5 -150

It adds up quickly and the Raiders are now already heading into their fourth season in Las Vegas. Last year was the least successful campaign they have had in the desert. It was a messy one too, even by Raiders standards.

The big change for this season is the addition of QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The coach is familiar with him from their time together in New England but it hardly feels like an upgrade over Derek Carr. Also, things do not seem very harmonious with top receiver Davante Adams at the moment either. All that put together and it is difficult to see how this team is going to win more games than they did a year ago. That is why there is a very nice payoff on that over.

2023 Las Vegas Raiders schedule analysis

The Raiders better hope the new QB pick up things quickly because the schedule makers did not do the Raiders any favors with their schedule. Three of the first four games are on the road including two division games and another at Buffalo. The lone home game is against the Steelers so it is no gimme. Things get easier in October for sure but an 0-4 start is tough to come back from. The final six games include both contests against Kansas City so if they have any chance at the over they better eat during the middle section.

The under is definitely the side to back with the Raiders. The upside just isn't there in the division they have to compete in. This number is very heavily juiced though so it is hard to make it a true recommendation, but I would bet it under 6.5 too.

Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5
Over -110 / Under -110

Even in this new Chargers era, they seem to never be able to get over the hump. They are always talented but something holds them back (shh ... it might be the coach).

The Chargers have won nine and 10 games over the last two seasons so this number is probably right where it should be and the prices tell us the same thing. The Chargers, unfortunately, have the reputation of not being able to win the games that could really go either way, the coin flip games, and that makes them a hard team to like on overs. There is not much incentive in the market to go that way either.

2023 Los Angeles Chargers schedule analysis

The thing that stands out about the Chargers' schedule is the final month. In their last four games, they have two road division games and home dates with Kansas City and Buffalo. That is no easy stretch so if you are high on the Chargers you are going to want them to get off to a strong start, which they certainly could due to continuity in most key areas. There does not seem to be much buzz about this team being much better than they have been though.

While I am not bullish on the Chargers in terms of joining the upper echelon of the AFC there are enough wins on their schedule to make them look pretty good. I can get to 11 pretty easily so the over looks good.

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