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NFL futures bets: Defensive Player of the Year odds and pick
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures bets: Defensive Player of the Year odds and pick

In an effort to productively pass the time until the NFL season gets going, we're taking a look at a variety of futures bets from team wins to player awards. Today's focus turns to the defensive side of the football as we apprise ourselves on the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year and who may be worth a bet at this stage in the offseason.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds

The top 10 on the board to win the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year award, odds courtesy of DraftKings.

  1. Myles Garrett, Cleveland (+750)
  2. Micah Parsons, Dallas (+750)
  3. TJ Watt, Pittsburgh (+850)
  4. Nick Bosa, San Francisco (+1000)
  5. Ahmad Gardner, NY Jets (+1400)
  6. Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas (+1500)
  7. Haason Reddick, Philadelphia (+2000)
  8. Aaron Donald, LA Rams (+2500)
  9. Brian Burns, Carolina (+2500)
  10. Quinnen Williams, NY Jets (+3000)

This award has been dominated by defensive linemen and edge rushers, with 10 of the past 12 winners playing from a position that allows them to rush the passer. It makes sense, as sacks are one of the easiest statistical identifiers to showcase a defender's value to their team. It's then not a surprise to see that nine of the 10 favorites to bring home this win are pass rushers.

Nick Bosa won last season off an 18.5-sack season, and TJ Watt's 21.5 sacks in 2021 netted him DPOY honors that year. Aaron Donald has brought home three wins in his dominant stretch for Los Angeles and can't be discounted in a potential rebound season for the star DT.

Micah Parsons has been flirting with the win, finishing as the runner-up in each of his first two seasons. Parsons has racked up 26.5 sacks to go along with 149 total tackles and six forced fumbles. For Parsons to bring home the win, he likely needs to build on those sack totals a bit, and considering he's entering just his third season, there's reason to believe his ceiling hasn't yet been hit.

Two picks in this market

Ahmad Gardner (+1400)

Yes, this award is dominated by defensive linemen, but when it's not won by someone along the DL, it more often than not has gone to a defensive back, with three DBs taking home a win since 2007.

Ahmad Gardner won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season with the Jets, slotting in immediately as an elite shutdown cornerback. 

It would be an uphill climb for Gardner to get the recognition he deserves to win this award, but considering he won DROY last season, he has staked his claim in the league as one of the best corners in the NFL, and there's reason to believe he's only just getting started.

Gardner allowed a reception on just 45.9% of his targets, the best mark among corners who saw 70+ targets come their way last season. The challenge for Gardner to win this award is likely that the interceptions may not come if he gets targeted less and less, he had just two last season.

Gardner can win this award if he week-in, week-out, removes his opponent's biggest receiving threat, cutting the field in half for the opposing QB to make something happen. If that occurs, and it coincides with Jets wins, expect to see Gardner receiving worthy buzz of winning Defensive Player of the Year at season's end.

Haason Reddick (+2000)

Haason Reddick likely should have at least been in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year last season. Reddick's 16.0 sacks were tied for second-most in the NFL, and his five forced fumbles were the most in the league.

Potentially hurting Reddick's case was the sheer amount of sacks that Philadelphia compiled, easily leading the league with a balanced and dominant front. However, at a certain point, that group's success can only come back to Reddick, the pass-rush leader who figures to wreak havoc once again with the Eagles' investment along the defensive line in this past draft.

With Reddick likely seeing plenty of one-on-one matchups, expect him to up his pressures even more, and if his sack total comes close to say, 20.0, there's reason to think he can win this award.

Reddick has had three great seasons from the EDGE, finishing with sack totals of 12.5, 11.0 and 16.0. That continued growth has put him on the map as one of the NFL's best, and with expected success coming from Philly again in 2023, Reddick has nice value here at +2000.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. 

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