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NFL futures bets: Most receiving yards in 2023 season

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated May 30, 2023 4:47 PM ET

As we bide our time before the NFL season returns, we've been exploring the futures market for league leaders in a variety of statistics. First we jumped into who will lead the league in passing yards, and then touched on rushing yards. Today we turn to the receiving yards market, both the favorites on the board and the value we see available to us.

Favorites for most receiving yards in 2023

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota (+650)
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati (+700)
Tyreek Hill, Miami (+900)
Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (+1100)
AJ Brown, Philadelphia (+1600)
Davante Adams, Las Vegas (+1800)
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo (+1800)
Jaylen Waddle, Miami (+2000)
Garrett Wilson, NY Jets (+2200)
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas (+2200)

Justin Jefferson is the understandable favorite in this market. He is the unquestioned top target on this Minnesota offense and is fresh off leading the NFL in receiving last year, finishing with 1,809 yards. His 2022 results were just the latest in what has been an incredible start to his career. Jefferson finished fourth in the NFL in his rookie season with 1,400 yards and compiled 1,616 yards in his sophomore campaign in 2021.

Tyreek Hill was second in the NFL last year with 1,710 yards, and Davante Adams was third with 1,516 in his first year with the Raiders. We're not as confident in either simply because of the unknown from their respective QBs this season, though Adams at least has a decisive edge in terms of competition for targets. Hill, meanwhile, will have to split work with Jaylen Waddle, who is eighth on the board.

The same goes for AJ Brown, who is +1600 to lead the NFL in receiving after finishing fourth last year. Barring injury, it's hard to see a world where Brown gets the volume necessary to top the NFL in receiving, as Devonta Smith is also in Philly and finished ninth in the league last year in yardage.

Our ideal targets in this market are members of high-volume offenses who are unquestionably the top WR on their teams. Two choices appear relatively clear to us.

Two bets in this market

Justin Jefferson +650

Boring though it may be, it's hard to pass up on a future that involves Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins remains in place for at least another year as the Vikings starter, and the offense most definitely flows through Jefferson.

There's no reason to think his production dips down in the slightest, quite the contrary. Jefferson feels like a terrific bet to one day become the first wide receiver to ever record 2,000 receiving yards in a season.

He led the NFL in targets last year and has seen his receiving yardage total increase by about 200 yards in each of his first three seasons. With Adam Thielen gone, Jefferson is the clear alpha in this group and will continue getting force-fed the football.

Health is always a factor with a bet like this, but Jefferson is worth taking a chance on.

Stefon Diggs +1800

This price on Buffalo's Stefon Diggs is incredibly enticing. We're not quite sold on Gabe Davis as a viable WR2. He's a fine option, no doubt, and perhaps the first round selection of TE Dalton Kincaid leaks into Diggs' usage, but he's very much the leader in this offense and will continue commanding the ball.

The Bills and Josh Allen have been one of the pass-happiest teams over the past few seasons, and that philosophy remains in place heading into 2023.

Diggs led the NFL in receiving back in 2020, his first with Buffalo, and he's averaged 1,396.33 yards per season since joining the Bills. He's always been right up there in both volume and total yardage, and at 29 should still be considered one of the top receivers in football.

His role is very comparable to Jefferson's in Minnesota, and these odds are worth a wager as the Bills look to continue their regular season success en route to finally winning a Super Bowl.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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