NFL futures: Season-long passing TDs bets to make

Next on our list of NFL season-long prop markets to explore is passing touchdowns.

When you consider a market like this, do know that the numbers and data suggest pocketing more unders than overs, despite our innate desire to root on things happening. In a league like the NFL, injuries are just so prominent, which skew these markets and have the unders as the tried and true more consistent option.

That doesn't mean we'll only be betting unders, but we will aim to favor them as much as we can. Time to find some passing touchdown lines that make sense.

Justin Herbert under 22.5 passing touchdowns (-125 DraftKings)

This could be a scary under to hang our hat on, and it's no knock on Herbert's talent — he's one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

However, the Chargers are now Jim Harbaugh's team, a coach known to lean on the run game, and Los Angeles also lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason.

Their current projected top pass-catchers are Joshua Palmer, second-year man Quentin Johnston, and rookie Ladd McConkey. While sure, Herbert could elevate this group, it's also possible there's some growing pains from this core in 2024. 

With a bit less passing projected in this offense, we'll fade Herbert to go under this passing touchdowns number for just the second time in five seasons.

Bo Nix under 17.5 passing touchdowns (-130 DraftKings)

It seems only right to fade a rookie QB in this market, especially one that was questionably made a first-round pick and may not even play a full season.

Bo Nix could end up being a quality passer for Denver, but it's hard to trust that he tosses 18+ touchdowns in Year One.

We've seen better rookie QBs than him struggle in their first seasons, and again, Nix's job isn't even completely guaranteed - though it is likely he is QB1 to start the year. The Broncos remain a few years away, and 2024 figures to be a tough one for the entire team.

Kyler Murray over 21.5 passing touchdowns (+100 DraftKings)

We can't only be Debbie Downers. We need an over on our board to track all season long. Arizona's Kyler Murray is a curious case, and after two straight seasons limited due to injuries, we're projecting a full 17-game slate for Murray, something he has yet to do since the NFL expanded their regular-season schedule.

In Murray's first three seasons, he tossed 20, 26 and 24 touchdowns, so we have no doubt that if he's available he can hit this number.

The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. should do immediate wonders for this offense, and Zay Jones at WR is another under-the-radar add that should open things up for this passing attack. Additionally, do not sleep on TE Trey McBride, he came on strong last season and should see plenty of work in the passing game.

The beauty of backing Murray is projecting just how often Arizona is likely to be throwing. They have an absolutely grueling schedule that should see the Cardinals trailing for the majority of the season. In such a world, there's plenty of garbage-time production to come as Arizona abandons the run, aiding our prop pick here.