NFL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Power Rankings

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: Season-long receiving TD bets to make

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jun 7, 2024 11:12 AM ET

We looked at some NFL pass-catchers we like and don't like yesterday for their yardage marks set by sportsbooks, but we also have markets available for total receiving touchdowns on the season.

This is a curious one, and there are plenty of options to consider. While we have been preaching unders as the side to favor in these markets, we have a feeling this is one such market that makes more sense to find some value on the overs.

Injuries do make unders in this market a more appealing option in a vacuum, but assuming health, there are a few roles in particular that seem likely to lead to plenty of scoring this NFL season.

Tyreek Hill over 9.5 receiving touchdowns (+110 DraftKings)

Tyreek Hill is the first of two names we're highlighting for a very simple reason: positive regression.

Positive regression seems like a funny term to throw around for Tyreek Hill, who won Offensive Player of the Year after going for 1,799 yards and catching 13 touchdowns.

Those touchdowns primarily came from the explosive play, which is an element we certainly expect to remain in Hill's game.

Still, there could be room for even more. Hill was tied for fifth in red-zone targets last season, but despite that, he caught only three touchdowns inside the 20. That role should conceivably open up more opportunity for scoring, and at plus-money to go for 10+ touchdowns, we have to back Hill.

Michael Pittman over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-110 DraftKings)

Michael Pittman is very similar to Hill with that red-zone data. Pittman was ninth in the NFL with 20 red zone targets, but he converted only two of them into touchdowns.

A contributing factor there was certainly Gardner Minshew at QB, but we're quite bullish on what second-year Anthony Richardson can do at the helm of this offense assuming he can stay healthy.

Pittman should be Richardson's top target by a mile, and his workload should translate to far more touchdowns.

Overall, the Colts WR1 was ninth in the league last year in total targets, but scored just four times. Only Garrett Wilson (168, three) had a worse ratio.

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (+110 DraftKings)

Let's toss a rookie into the mix, why not! When you speak about rookie WRs, there are plenty walking into some strong spots to produce, but the wild card is most definitely Xavier Worthy.

The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to select Worthy in the first round in April, and his record-breaking 4.21 40-yard dash (fastest ever recorded) was certainly a contributing factor to Kansas City's infatuation with the pass-catcher out of Texas.

Worthy joins a team that, you know, has the best quarterback on the planet in Patrick Mahomes, but he also walks into a situation that could have a ton of volume up for grabs.

No one knows the status of Rashee Rice, who has dealt with a few off-field issues this offseason, including a motor vehicle crash and a nightclub assault. The team also said goodbye to Marquez Valdes-Scantling this offseason.

MVS saw 42 targets last year, and Rice was second on the team with 102, and the two combined for eight touchdowns.

If Rice is suspended for a few games, Worthy would see an elevated role, giving us a soft line here on an impact rookie for Kansas City. Count us in.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

More must-reads: