NFL futures: Three touchdown bets you can make today

Two years into the 17-game regular season, and the highest passing touchdown total we've seen was Tom Brady in 2021, with 43. Three times in the last five years has a QB surpassed this 42.5 total, and over the last 10 seasons, there've been only four instances of a quarterback finishing with 43 or more passing touchdowns.

We're inclined to trust the data there and load up the under on most passing TDs in 2023.

The bet: Under 42.5 (-120)

Most receiving touchdowns this season

Over 14.5 (-120) | Under 14.5 (+100)

For the past few seasons, it has seemed that a star wide receiver has emerged as a target hog in their offensive scheme, putting up absurd numbers. Justin Jefferson was the latest case, but you may be surprised to know that of his 128 catches, only eight resulted in touchdowns last year.

That gives reason for pause here, but over the last five seasons, this 14.5 number has been reasonably attainable. Three receivers over the last three seasons have finished with 15+ receiving touchdowns, and the season-leader has finished with 15+ in three of the last five years.

Touchdowns have a touch of randomness that yards and receptions do not, but we're still inclined to expect someone to have themselves a magical scoring season in 2023. We like the over in this market.

The bet: Over 14.5 (-120)

Most rushing touchdowns this season

Over 16.5 (-110) | Under 16.5 (-110)

This is an appropriately priced market. Over the past five seasons, the season-leader for rushing TDs has finished with touchdown totals of 17, 16, 17, 18 and 17. That certainly has us leaning toward favoring the offer at first glance.

The curious case about this market is who sometimes ends up leading the league in touchdowns. Scheme is a huge part of things. Who would have guessed that it would be Jamaal Williams leading the league last year with 17 rushing touchdowns? Or LeGarrette Blount with 16 back in 2016?

Our problem with backing the over here is that the running back position has been one of the most injury-prone positions for years now. More and more, teams are opting for a committee approach to their backfield, and quarterbacks remain in place to vulture short yardage touchdowns.

There is too much uncertainty to feel good about anyone hitting 17 this year. Only five runners over the last 10 seasons have finished with over 16.5 rushing TDs.

The bet: Under 16.5 (-110)