Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14). Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'MNF' player prop: Matchup nightmare

By John Dudley | Last updated Oct 2, 2023 9:44 AM ET

Although the NFL season is only four weeks old, the Giants are already playing their third night game. And the bright lights haven’t been kind to Daniel Jones over his five-year career, as he sports a 1-11 record in prime time as a starting quarterback. He’ll need to limit the turnovers that have plagued him in order to earn his first victory on "Monday Night Football," but it’s an unmistakable player on the visiting Seahawks who deserves our backing for top prop:

The bet: Over 61½ receiving yards for Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (DraftKings)

A member of Jones’s draft class in 2019, Metcalf was taken with the last pick of the second round. His unmatched blend of size (6-4, ripped 235 pounds) and speed (4.3 40-yard dash) made him a starter from the first game, and he posted 89 receiving yards in his debut.

Despite playing through a rib injury, Metcalf has increased his production in each game this season. He has comfortably cleared this number in the last two, most recently catching six passes for 112 yards in a win over the Panthers. Based on a target share in excess of 30%, it’s clear that he has become Geno Smith’s most trusted receiver.

Metcalf also sees a greater percentage of throws when the quarterback is pressured, and the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the league under second-year defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale. That attacking approach will often leave Metcalf in man coverage against a secondary that features two rookies.

The 49ers’ Deebo Samuel — another fast, physical receiver — just lit up this defense for 129 yards on six receptions. Exploiting his obvious matchup advantages, Metcalf should enjoy similar success.

John Dudley

A longtime writer and sports bettor, John Dudley has been dubbed the “King of Props” for his proficiency with proposition wagers. Research is the key that routinely unlocks success, and his selections are always backed by sound reasoning. John can be followed on Twitter @JohnDudley85

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