NFL Network Reveals Best, Worst-Case Scenarios for Atlanta Falcons 1st-Round Picks

The Atlanta Falcons have historically had the worst pass rush in the NFL. There's been a chronic lack of investment on the defensive side of the ball that spans several general managers.

However, general manager Terry Fontenot addressed the Falcons' biggest need in a significant way with a pair of edge rushers in the first round. Atlanta drafted former Georgia Bulldog standout Jalon Walker at No. 15 and then double dipped at the position with former Vols sack artist James Pearce Jr. at No. 26.

NFL Network's Doug Parr took a look at the ceiling and floor for key defensive rookies around the NFL, including Walker and Pearce. Like all rookies, outsized expectations are placed on newcomers by fans, and Parr is injecting a dose of skepticism in his analysis.

For perspective, the Dolphins' Chop Robinson led all rookie edge rushers with six sacks in 2024, and the Broncos' Jonah Elliss was the only other rookie edge to get at least five sacks.

"Walker emerges as the bedrock of Atlanta’s long-sputtering pass rush, providing a burst of energy off the edge," Parr wrote of Walker's best-case scenario. "He becomes a leader in the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation and supplies the leadership the Falcons could use after the departure of Grady Jarrett."

Walker has missed a good portion of training camp with muscle injuries in his legs and won't play on Friday against the DallasCowboys.

"The injuries that have sidelined Walker in camp and the preseason linger into the regular season and keep his rookie year from ever truly lifting off," wrote Parr of Walker's worst-case scenario. "His lack of ideal size as a full-time edge defender proves problematic and prevents him from shaking the tweener label."

Parr projects Walker to have 53 tackles and 4.5 sacks as a rookie. Not the worst case, but below fellow rookie edge rushers Abdul Carter (9.0), Mike Green (6.0), Mykell Williams (5.0), and... James Pearce Jr. (5.5).

"The Falcons’ long pass-rush nightmare is over. Pearce wins with quick twitch and a relentless motor," Parr wrote of Pearce. "He silences his doubters, pairing with fellow first-round pick Jalon Walker to give Atlanta an electric edge-defender duo."

In mock drafts this time last year, Pearce was seen as a consensus top 10 pick. The Falcons were hoping they got that player when they traded up for him and selected him at No. 26.

However, Parr raises the concerns that helped factor into Pearce being available in the back part of the first round for the Falcons to take him.

"Pearce has a hard time countering the power of NFL blockers, too often getting washed out of plays,' Parr wrote of the worst-case scenario for Pearce. "He fails to earn starting snaps and looks to be more of a project than an instant-impact difference-maker, leading to questions about whether the team whiffed by giving up next year's first-round pick for him."

The 2026 NFL Draft is loaded at positions of need for the Falcons, including offensive tackle, defensive linemen, and cornerbacks. If Pearce hits, Fontenot's gamble on him will be well worth trading next year's first. Of course, there's nothing stopping Fontenot from trading back into the first round next year.

Parr predicts a combined 10 sacks from the Falcons' first-round duo. On the surface, that may seem too low, but it's just one off the combined total of the top-two edge rushers last year.

The Falcons had 42 sacks in 2023 (vs. 31 in 2024) with no one having more than 6.5. The Falcons aren't counting on Walker and Pearce to be their only source of pressure this year. They're part of a four-man edge rotation that includes Arnold Ebiketie and Leonard Floyd.

20 sacks from the edge room that had 13.5 last season would be a 50% improvement.

Kaden Elliss, Ruke Orhorhoro, and even nickel cornerback Billy Bowman could factor heavily into the sack numbers, with other players like David Onyemata and Zach Harrison chipping in.

The Falcons are hoping to get more than 10 sacks from their prized rookies, but they have plenty of options for generating pass rush in 2025 should they need some time to get acclimated to the NFL game.