NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds, Best Bets

(Editor’s note: This article is from The Spun by Athlon Sports’ 2025 Football Betting Guide — the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike. Order your copy today online, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)

The criteria for selecting the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year has been relatively straightforward since its inception in 1972. Voters have simply selected the offensive player who produced the most outstanding individual season.

This distinction is clear from that of Most Valuable Player, which essentially translates to the most indispensable player of the year.

Although the MVP has traditionally gone to quarterbacks (particularly in the last two decades), QBs haven’t been nearly as dominant in Offensive Player of the Year tabulations. By comparison, quarterbacks have won nearly 70% of all MVPs, but they’ve still taken home the OPOY hardware 52.8% of the time.

Nothing in the voting framework prevents a candidate from winning OPOY and MVP in the same year (it’s occurred 26 times). Therefore, wagering on the OPOY is a bit trickier. That’s why the best strategy is to identify players who offer the most betting value.

With that in mind, here are my two best bets to win the top offensive player award in 2025:

Patrick Mahomes +7500

You don’t often see Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes have 75-to-1 odds in any futures market.

Of course, you also don’t often see Mahomes coming off a disappointing season (by his standards). That is indeed the case, though.

Then again, that disappointment in 2024 was mostly the result of persistent injuries to Mahomes’ wide receiving group.

Projected starters Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice didn’t share a single regular-season snap together. The former injured his shoulder on his first play during a preseason scrimmage and was sidelined until Week 16, while the latter suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4.

If the Chiefs can have some positive injury luck at wide receiver in 2025, there’s no reason Mahomes can’t return to the form that resulted in two MVP awards and three Super Bowl titles. And at his 75-to-1 preseason price, the value is tremendous.

Ja’Marr Chase  +900

In 2024, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley became just the ninth player to reach the 2,000-yard rushing mark. Such a rare feat virtually guaranteed Barkley the OPOY trophy.

If not for Barkley’s historic campaign, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase would’ve won the award. The veteran wideout finished runner-up to Barkley despite winning the wide receiver triple crown: He led the NFL in receptions (127), yards (1,708) and touchdowns (17).

One reason Chase put up those numbers (and continued to build on his rapport with quarterback and former LSU teammate Joe Burrow): He was on the field for all 17 games.

In fact, Chase has only missed six games since entering the league in 2021. That availability makes him a viable candidate for this
honor.

While the Bengals did well to lock up Chase and fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins with new deals, the prevailing opinion is the team didn’t do enough to shore up its many defensive deficiencies.

As a result, Cincinnati might need to once again rely heavily on its offense — and in particular the Burrow/Chase partnership — to have any chance for success in 2025.

Here are thge updated odds for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, courtesy of betMGM (editor’s note: these odds are updated from what appears in the magazine):