Here's a look at our NFL divisional round picks against the spread as of Tuesday, Jan. 8. Lines are from Pinnacle Sports. Wild-card round picks went 1-3, and picks are 130-125-4 overall this season.
Chiefs -5.0 vs. Colts
Chiefs fans seem to be frightened by this game, though it's unclear if that's due to the team's recent playoff blunders, Andy Reid's playoff history or the Colts. Indianapolis is a formidable foe, winning 10 of its last 11 games, but the Colts haven't beaten a team close to K.C.'s strength during that stretch. In fact, the Colts have had the eighth-easiest schedule , and the Chiefs were the first team in NFL history to score at least 26 points in every game. Andrew Luck will need to score more for the Colts to have any shot, and that's a tough task against an elite pass rush. The possible returns of Sammy Watkins and Eric Berry provide yet another obstacle.
Rams -7.5 vs. Cowboys
A few weeks of rest were good for Todd Gurley's nagging knee injury, but it's the Rams passing game that should concern the Cowboys most. Dallas has allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt and a completion rate of better than 67 percent this season, and even without Cooper Kupp, there are more than a few matchup nightmares. L.A.'s poor run defense, ranked dead last in yards per carry, could be a problem vs. Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys won't have much of an opportunity to exploit it if they get behind early. The line has already increased from 7.0 points.
Chargers +4.0 at Patriots
Despite all of the Patriots success in the playoffs, they are just 16-18 against the spread since 2003 and were just 2-2 against the spread over their final four regular-season games. Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady, but this year could be different for a Chargers team that is 8-1 on the road this season and has won six of its last seven games. The line has moved from 4.5 points.
Eagles +8.0 at Saints
The Saints earned the top seed in the NFC, but they were hardly indestructible late in the year. They put up only 10 points at Dallas in Week 13 and 12 points at Carolina two weeks later. Plus, they barely escaped at home vs. Pittsburgh in Week 16. Philadelphia is a double-clanked Cody Parkey field goal away from watching from home, but Nick Foles has now led the Eagles to four straight wins, three on the road. Philadelphia's offense is also in position to exploit New Orleans' defensive weakness in the secondary. After the line increased to 10 points in favor of the Saints initially, it has declined back to eight points.
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