NFL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Power Rankings

Sauce Gardner of the New York Jets. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

NFL picks, premium trends, tips for Week 5

Originally posted on Action Network | By Alex Kolodziej | Last updated Oct 5, 2024 7:01 PM ET

PRO Systems’ best bets for NFL Week 5 feature four strategies and six picks.

Our top NFL betting tips for Week 5 focus on fading the public, windy games, and other nuanced situational angles.

Also, the premium NFL trends active Sunday feature extra support from our savvy betting researcher, Evan Abrams, to add even more confidence to the picks.

We kick off all six NFL predictions with an exciting 9:30 a.m. London kickoff.

NFL Picks, Premium Trends, Tips for Week 5

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets aren’t the headline entering the Week 5 London game. Rather, it’s the 4-0 Vikings behind a rejuvenated Sam Darnold.

According to Abrams, the only teams since 1990 to start 4-0 with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings (6.5), 2009 Broncos, 1999 Rams and 1995 Rams.

Sunday’s London odds for Jets vs. Vikings is Minnesota -2.5,

In our exploration of this week’s NFL picks, we begin with the Jets, flagged under a PRO System called “Bet Against the Public After Bad Game.”

This model works by capitalizing on scenarios where teams have performed poorly in their previous outing.

Specifically, teams that scored fewer than 10 points in their last game often lose favor with bettors – like the Jets, who lost 12-9 to the Broncos and are now attracting just 25% of tickets in our trackers.

However, statistics show that when a team with such a performance gets less than 30% of public betting tickets, they cover the spread 61% of the time in their following game.

The Jets fall into this category, making them an intriguing option for savvy bettors.

PRO System Prediction: Jets to Cover the Spread

Our second PRO System is known as High Winds, which factors in the impact of windy conditions on game scoring.

Historically, games with winds gusting between 10-50 mph have hit the under 57% of the time.

For instance, the Jets vs. Vikings game in London is expected to feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 60s, and winds between 9-11 mph, according to our own PJ Walsh. This is right on the cusp of where breezy weather starts to affect game dynamics and scoring, making it a prime candidate for the under category.

PRO System Prediction: Jets vs. Vikings Under

Two more games also fit this high-winds strategy: Panthers vs. Bears and Ravens vs. Bengals. Soldier Field in Chicago projects for significant wind on Sunday, pushing our NFL predictions toward the under 41 for Panthers-Bears.

PRO System Prediction: Panthers vs. Bears Under

Meanwhile, in Cincinnati’s Paycor Stadium, 14 mph winds bolster the argument for the Ravens-Bengals game to go under 48.5.

PRO System Prediction: Ravens vs. Bengals Under

The third PRO System, dubbed “Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season,” is another cutting-edge NFL betting tip.

It takes advantage of the perception that teams with a poor season prior may underperform.

Historically, small underdogs with low totals cover the spread when they had a meager six or fewer wins the previous year.

The Panthers (+4 vs. the Bears) fit this mold, making them a compelling choice for those looking to exploit this trend.

PRO System Prediction: Panthers to Cover the Spread

Finally, we turn our attention to the fourth “Dogs After Blowout’ PRO System,

Teams off a loss by 20 or more points to cover the spread 57% of the time in their next game, provided they are receiving +3 points or more on the line.

The Cardinals, who suffered a 28-point defeat last week, emerge as a significant prospect as they’re catching +7 against the 49ers this week. San Francisco won 30-13 last week.

Abrams highlights an additional layer to this analysis: Historically, teams losing by 17+ points and then facing a team that won by 17+ the previous week are 113-77 ATS, translating to a 60% winning rate over the last 20 years.

To sweeten the pot on Arizona to cover, teams to lose by 28+ points the previous week and are underdogs of four points or more in their next game are 115-72 ATS (62%).

The Cardinals are the only match this week.