NFL Picks: Week 1

The line opened at 4.0 during the summer but has gone in the Falcons favor since Nick Foles and Alshon Jeffery were ruled out for Week 1. The Eagles fans will obviously be pumped for the season opener, but Foles' career of inconsistent and poor preseasons is concerning, to say the least.

The Bucs open the season without Jameis Winston, a fact that's reflected in the 9.5-point line. The Saints crushed Tampa Bay 30-10 at home last season and have plenty of offensive firepower to do it again despite the absence of Mark Ingram. Ryan Fitzpatrick's propensity for turnovers could make this one get out of hand.

Jags vice president Tom Coughlin returns to New York as the subplot of an intriguing matchup that also includes the arrival of new head coach Pat Shurmur and rookie running back Saquon Barkley in the Big Apple. The Giants look like they've improved their offensive line in the offseason but will really be tested against one of the most dominant defensive lines in the NFL.

If you regularly bet on Bill Belichick's team since 2003, you'd be doing well for yourself. The Patriots are a league-leading 159-108-7 (59.5 percent) against the spread over that time, according to TeamRankings.com . For all the hype about Deshaun Watson's return, Houston's secondary really struggled last season, and it remains to be seen if the addition of Tyrann Mathieu is enough to remedy the situation.

Nathan Peterman had a great preseason but looks shaky on paper after five picks in one half during his NFL debut last season, and he will be facing the team that ranked No. 1 in takeaways in 2017. Buffalo will obviously lean on the run game and LeSean McCoy, but it's worth noting the team lost by more than a touchdown only four times last season. The line has increased from 6.0 points in early August.

The public likes the 49ers this year, in general, after they finished last season on a five-game winning streak. Still, they have major questions at running back after losing Jerick McKinnon to injury, and the defense was mediocre in 2017. Kirk Cousins clearly improves a Minnesota offense that was run-heavy last season but still finished 10th in points scored.

What can we expect from the Titans offense under new coordinator Matt LaFleur? The unexpected. He's stated that he will lean on either power back Derrick Henry or new back Dion Lewis based on the opponent, and that could be especially difficult to prepare for given it's the opening week of the season.

It's time to see Andrew Luck for real again after missing all of 2017 due to a shoulder injury. The line has moved in the Bengals favor from 3.5 in late August. The team has some defensive questions, particularly in the secondary, but has addressed its offensive line in the offseason and faces a mighty weak Colts pass rush (29th in sack percentage last season). Andy Dalton and Joe Mixon could be in for big days.

The line went from 5.5 to 3.5 on the news that Le'Veon Bell didn't report to practice on Labor Day and remained a no-show as of Wednesday. This line could go haywire again if there is more news. Despite the Browns many offseason additions, it does seem rather close for a team that's gone 1-31 over the last two seasons vs. a perennial AFC North powerhouse.

New Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be tested in his second career start vs. the No.1 point scoring defense in football last season. Don't forget, it was Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs running game that dominated LA last season, as he ran for nearly 250 yards in two games. Look for the Chiefs to continue to lean on the run, but Pro Bowl Eric Berry's (heel) status could play a big role for a thin KC secondary.

The Cowboys offseason went from bad to worse on offense with Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick's status clouded by an autoimmune disease. Look for the Panthers to load up the box and force Dak Prescott to throw to the likes of Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and Co. Cowboys fans could be worried if the offensive line doesn't hold up in Week 1.

The Mile High City is a tough place to play, especially early in the season with players still getting into shape. Week 1 marks the arrival of both Case Keenum and running back Royce Freeman for the Broncos, who should test a Seahawks defense that has seen major offseason turnover. The Seahawks have also lost Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson on offense.

Both teams have new quarterbacks, as Alex Smith faces Sam Bradford in Arizona. Similarly, both are known for being game managers. Adrian Peterson, who played for Arizona last year, was a late signing by Washington after rookie Derrius Guice was injured, and his success could be the difference in this toss-up.

The addition of Khalil Mack to the Bears has caught most of the headlines this week, and the line moved a half point around the time of the trade. Still, Lambeau Field is always a tough test for any opposing team, especially when Aaron Rodgers is healthy.

New Lions head coach Matt Patricia knows all about the Jets after coming over from New England, and this is also rookie quarterback Sam Darnold's first appearance. For what it's worth, the Jets were still one of the league's best teams against the spread last season, going 9-6-1, and they seem extremely comfortable with Darnold given his inexperience.

The final home opener in Oakland features a team that's deflated after trading defensive star Khalil Mack. The Raiders could have a tough time defending Todd Gurley and Co. as a result, and the interception-prone Derek Carr faces two new corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, who know him from the AFC West. Consider this one the pick of the week at 4.0 points.