NFL picks: Week 13

The week kicks off with a solid Thursday game with playoff implications. The Saints have the top ATS record in the NFL at 9-2 and have won 10 straight games. They also have shown an elite run defense, which is convenient vs. Ezekiel Elliott. But Dak Prescott has been more efficient lately with the addition of Amari Cooper, completing more than 70 percent of his passes with no picks over the last three contests. He should be able to keep it close in a home tilt.

Another week, another blowout loss by Arizona. Despite their bad loss vs. the Chargers, the Cardinals are still 5-5-1 ATS. The Packers are still hurting on the back end and have lost four of five games (all on the road). Josh Rosen has created his own mistakes, but it remains to be seen if the Packers have enough healthy players in the secondary to exploit him.

Cleveland is clearly playing better football after the firing of Hue Jackson, as the Browns are 2-1 in three games with consecutive wins by at least two touchdowns. They face a hot Houston team that has won eight straight games, though it's worth noting the Browns are 7-4 ATS vs. only 5-6 ATS for the Texans.

Whether or not Lamar Jackson starts under center this week, the Ravens running game poses an issue for Atlanta. They continue to ride the hot hand with running back Gus Edwards, who has rushed for 100 yards in consecutive games and faces a Falcons defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry.

It seems we never know which Bucs team we'll see from week to week. They won their fourth game of the year on Sunday, an easy 27-9 victory over San Francisco, but that was after allowing 38 points to the Giants. The Panthers have lost three straight games, but their elite running game (5.3 yards per carry) still looks like a major issue for Tampa.

Following the return of Ryan Tannehill last week, Miami nearly pulled out an upset over Indy, while Buffalo did just that vs. Jacksonville after Josh Allen's return. Tannehill was much better than anticipated against the Colts despite playing through pain, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, and he should be able to keep the Bills at arm's length with a similar performance this week.

It was hell week for the Jaguars, who fired OC Nathaniel Hackett and benched Blake Bortles after a disappointing loss to the Bills. They're also set to be without Leonard Fournette, who was given a one-game suspension after an altercation on Sunday. Add in the defense's sub-par performance at Buffalo, and it's hard to see how the team covers vs. a hot Colts offense unless Cody Kessler is able to light a fire for the team under center.

Don't look now, but Denver has consecutive wins: at the Chargers and vs. the Steelers. Apparently, Vegas thinks the team is in for a letdown, visiting a Bengals squad starting Jeff Driskel at quarterback. Driskel averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt after entering the game vs. Cleveland and was run out of Gainesville for his mediocre play for Florida in college, so it's hard to see how he keeps this game interesting.

Coming off a bye, the Rams are still riding high after their 54-51 win vs. the Chiefs, but it's worth noting the team is just 4-6-1 ATS this season. Allowing 26.0 points per game and failing to hold the Chase Daniel-led Bears offense last week, it's difficult to see how Detroit keeps this game close.

Now 8-3 ATS, the Bears visit New York. Mitchell Trubisky's status for Week 13 is still up in the air, but Chase Daniel proved at least capable last week at Detroit. Most concerning is how the Giants offensive line can hold up against Chicago, which ranks 11th in sack percentage (7.5 percent).

The Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS this season and facing a Raiders squad that's dead last at 3-8. The key to stopping Patrick Mahomes has been getting a pass rush, and that feature is non-existent in the Oakland defense that ranks dead last with a 3.2 percent sack rate. Two more points that could be worth consideration: The Chiefs overlooked Arizona and almost got burned three weeks ago, so they'll likely come out firing to not repeat that result; and the visit to Oakland was KC's only divisional loss last year. There are plenty of Chiefs players who remember that game vividly.

Sam Darnold's availability remains up in the air, while Tennessee is nearly in a must-win situation to make the playoffs after losing to Houston on Monday night. Without Darnold, the Jets have lost by a combined 45 points over the last two games, both at home.

Seattle has already exceeded most expectations in a rebuilding year at 6-5, with back-to-back big wins against Green Bay and Carolina. The 49ers fell back to earth after a bad loss at Tampa Bay, and Nick Mullens played like an undrafted, free-agent quarterback. The 49ers running game should be able to expose Seattle's poor run defense, but this is a really a tough task on the road.

The return of Rob Gronkowski helped New England last week, but the Pats still struggled at the Jets until the second half. Still, the Patriots are 4-1 ATS at home this season, with all but one of their wins coming by at least a touchdown.

The injury to Melvin Gordon comes at an inopportune time for the Chargers, who face the Steelers and Chiefs within 11 days. Pittsburgh lost at Denver on Sunday after a close call at Jacksonville the week before. But this is usually a different team at home, 54-44-3 (55.1 percent) in the Mike Tomlin era (since 2007), according to TeamRankings.com.

It was a rough first start for Colt McCoy on Thanksgiving, but the struggling Eagles offer him a good opportunity to get on track. Philly has allowed 4.9 yards per carry this season, so expect Washington to slow down the game with Adrian Peterson. The Eagles enter the game tied for the worst ATS record in the league at 3-8, compared to 7-4 for Washington.