NFL picks: Week 16

Undefeated Washington quarterback Josh Johnson (1-0) pulled off a shocking victory against Jacksonville last week, moving his team to 8-6 against the spread. The Titans offense has allowed a total of nine points over the last two games as Derrick Henry finally shows some of last year's form, but this is a big line to cover for a Titans team averaging only 19.1 points per game.

This Saturday game has huge playoff implications for both teams. The Ravens still have the top defense in football and are 4-1 since Lamar Jackson became their starter, with their only loss a 24-21 overtime defeat at Kansas City. The Chargers are arguably playing worse at home this year, with two close calls, vs. San Francisco and Cincinnati, as well as losses to K.C. and Denver.

Both teams are coming off games in which they were offensively challenged. Despite the accolades that the Cowboys offense received before last week, Dallas has scored 30 points only twice this season and has won only one game by more than eight points this year.

What a difference a week makes. Now the Eagles look like legitimate playoff contenders after beating the Rams on the road, while Houston wasn't exactly convincing at the Jets after losing to the Colts in Week 15. While Philly is still just 5-9 against the spread, the secondary is finally showing signs of life and its 4.9 yards per rush allowed won't be as big of an issue if Lamar Miller (ankle) is unable to play.

The line moved from -2.5 Carolina to -3.0 Atlanta when it was announced that Cam Newton would be shutdown for the year on Wednesday, and it wouldn't be surprising if the line continued to move. Backup Taylor Heinicke had a legendary career at Old Dominion, but has throw only five passes during the regular season of NFL games. It's difficult to side with Carolina at +3.0 for what's almost a completely unknown at quarterback.

The sky is falling yet again in New England. The Patriots scored only 10 points at Pittsburgh last week, just a week after losing at Miami. Remember, New England also had big problems for a while at Buffalo in Week 8 against Derek Anderson before pulling away late. Buffalo is running out of healthy running backs but could be able to keep the game close enough with Josh Allen under center.

Cincinnati has played surprisingly well over the last two weeks with Jeff Driskel under center and A.J. Green absent. Now they're also likely to be without Tyler Boyd (knee), and there's even more pressure on Joe Mixon. It remains to be seen if the Bengals will be able to generate enough offense to stay in the game.

Have the Jags officially turned the page on 2018? It would seem that way after losing to Washington, led by Josh Johnson at quarterback. Jacksonville has scored a combined 28 points over the last three games, and Leonard Fournette (foot) remains banged up.

The Packers were the flavor of the week when they beat Atlanta 34-20 following Mike McCarthy's firing, but they regressed to lose by a touchdown at Chicago last week. The teams have identical 5-8-1 records against the spread, but New York last won a home game in Week 6. Aaron Jones' (knee) status does cloud the ability of the Packers offense to move the ball.

After getting shut out by the Jaguars in Week 13, the Colts have rebounded to beat Houston and Dallas in consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, Odell Beckham (quad) remains questionable, and the Giants were shut out vs. Tennessee last week. The Colts are a poor matchup for the Giants offense, holding teams to less than 4 yards per carry.

Minnesota had no problem disposing of Detroit earlier this season (24-9), and its offense got on track last week with a new offensive coordinator. Detroit last scored more than 20 points in Week 10.

San Francisco is quietly making another late-season surge, beating Denver and Seattle in consecutive weeks. The Niners have done it with defense and special teams, but the Bears are still fighting for playoff positioning, having won seven of eight and each of those wins coming by five points or more.

The Rams offense is scuffling after consecutive losses, but they have a chance to get on track at Arizona. However, Todd Gurley hasn't looked the same lately while nursing a knee injury, and up until last week the Cardinals defense had seemed formidable.

Pittsburgh still leads the AFC North by only a half game over Baltimore, so this remains a huge game. New Orleans' secondary has been an issue for the defense but is still tied for the best ATS record at 10-4. The return home after three road games should be helpful, but Drew Brees' recent slump is a big concern.

Another game with huge playoff implications, the Chiefs could be in must-win mode to keep their lead in the AFC West. The defense looked much-improved in the first half of last week's game with Eric Berry on the field, and he's expected to get more snaps. If he can continue to remedy the Chiefs' leaky run defense, they should be able to outscore Seattle. It's worth noting, however, that the Chiefs are 0-3 against the spread without Kareem Hunt.

Vegas is seemingly questioning Denver's motivation after the Broncos were all but eliminated from the playoffs after losing 17-16 vs. Cleveland. They also beat Oakland by only one point in Week 2, but the Raiders inability to stop the run (4.8 yards per carry) is a major reason to question their ability to hang with Denver again.