NFL picks: Week 3

After a great Week 1 vs. Detroit, the Jets face-planted last week against Miami. On short rest, they'll face the Browns, who have had two heartbreaking non-wins. Tyrod Taylor was able to get his feet under him against the Saints, but Cleveland seems to just find ways to avoid wins.

After a home tie vs. Minnesota, the Packers go on the road for the first time this season to face Washington. The Redskins had a disappointing home opener vs. Indianapolis, and we know that Aaron Rodgers is capable of putting up big points. Washington has done a great job defending the pass so far this season, but Rodgers certainly represents a new challenge. 

The Chiefs have put up 80 points over two games, and that's on the road vs. two teams that finished above .500 last season. The line has been moving in KC's favor for its home opener since opening at 6.0 points, and with the way Patrick Mahomes has played, even the over/under total of 56.0 looks low.

The Saints defense has been a huge disappointment early this season, especially in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay, while Atlanta's defense has had its fair share of injuries. New Orleans had a comeback win vs. Cleveland and will now be going on the road for the first time this season. The Falcons maligned red-zone offense certainly has a chance to get on track, but the team's run defense needs to shape up vs. Alvin Kamara after allowing 5.2 yards per carry so far.

Denver goes on the road for the first time this season, where they are just 10-14 against the spread since 2015. Meanwhile, Baltimore has extra rest after playing last Thursday — plenty of time to recuperate after getting battered by the Bengals.

Carson Wentz will be making his first appearance of the year in Week 3 after tearing his ACL in Week 14 last season. It will be interesting to see if he has any rust. Andrew Luck returned from injury earlier this season and is still shaking off rust of his own, throwing three picks in two games. However, it's the showing of Indy's defense last week (nine points allowed) that leads to optimism that the Colts can keep this one close.

The Bills apparently can't even keep their players from quitting at halftime, and head coach Sean McDermott has taken some of the play-calling duties on defense. It's obviously going to be a long year in Buffalo, and this would be only the 17th spread of 17.0-plus points. The favorite is just 6-9-1 in those games.

The Giants offense has done almost nothing against Jacksonville and Dallas, and there are offensive line issues with all the new faces. That's a problem against an excellent Texans pass rush, but Houston is still leaky in the secondary, allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Giants defense should be able to do enough to keep this game close.

The Jaguars proved they're back after beating New England in Week 2, showing once again their dominant defense. Marcus Mariota is expected to return for Week 3, but he struggled to do anything in Week 1 at Miami. Tennessee's main reason for hope here is that it won and covered in both matchups last season.

The Bengals are coming off a huge win but will be without running back Joe Mixon. That creates a major issue for their offense, but the team's offensive line looks much improved. The defensive line can also give a banged-up Panthers line fits, as it did vs. Baltimore last week. 

The Raiders had a heart-wrenching defeat at Denver last week but was able to beat the spread. Their lack of pass rush has plagued them on defense, ranking third worst with a 2.9 percent sack rate thus far. It will be tempting for the run-heavy Dolphins to pass the ball more in this one, with Ryan Tannehill likely to have plenty of time.

The Rams added elite players in the offseason and have played the part of an elite team through two weeks, outscoring opponents 67-13 in their first two games. Of course, it should be mentioned that those opponents were the Raiders and Cardinals. The crosstown Chargers represent the first legitimate competition of the year, and Philip Rivers has been on fire with four touchdowns in consecutive games. He should be able to keep the game close, and the Chargers have the best record against the spread as road dogs since 2013 (21-11-2).

The Seahawks are hoping their first home game of the year is a cure for what ails them, starting the season 0-2. They've failed to find any offense and are banged up on defense, while the Cowboys found their offensive footing in Week 2. A formerly elite Seahawks run defense has allowed 116 yards per game thus far, which could pose a problem against Ezekiel Elliott.

Chicago clearly has a defense to be reckoned with, but on the offensive side, Mitchell Trubisky has struggled in two games this season. The defense might be enough for a big win at Arizona, as the Cardinals have netted a total of six points through two games and have shown no sign of offensive progress. Incredibly, they have just 3.7 yards per play and 350 yards through two games.

Bill Belichick will face his former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, for the first time. The Pats are also coming off their first loss of the season. Incredibly, Belichick's Patriots are 38-13 (74.5 percent)  against the spread after a loss since 2003.

Who would have thought these teams would be meeting under these circumstances in Week 3, with a winless Steelers team and an undefeated Bucs squad. Last week the Chiefs showed the Steelers secondary could be exposed, but cornerback Joe Haden will be returning this week. Still, Tampa Bay's problems vs. the pass might be even more severe, allowing 8.1 yards per attempt vs. 6.9 yards per attempt for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 36-24 (60.0 percent) against the spread after a loss during head coach Mike Tomlin's tenure.