NFL picks: Week 4

Both teams are ravaged by injuries on a short week. The Vikings were humiliated on Sunday vs. Buffalo, but they have the defensive talent for a quick turnaround and the wideouts to expose the absence of injured corners Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. They should be able to keep it close.

The Jaguars managed six points in a frustrating 9-6 loss to Tennessee in Week 3 but they hope to have Leonard Fournette back for this contest. On the Jets side, rookie Sam Darnold has been exposed the last two weeks. Still, 7.5 points is tough to cover for the inconsistent Jags defense unless it forces turnovers, and that becomes tougher if Calais Campbell is unable to go.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's carelessness with the ball was on full display vs. Pittsburgh, and that will be an issue against a good Chicago defense. However, Mitchell Trubisky has made very little progress this year and might not be capable of exploiting a banged up Tampa Bay secondary.

There's major reason to worry about both teams. The Texans can't protect Deshaun Watson and have a leaky secondary, and Andrew Luck doesn't look the same in the season's first three games. This one is a toss-up, but Indy's issues at the tackle position put the talented Texans defensive line in a prime position.

Carson Wentz won his return last week but not without some sweat. He's expected to get Jay Ajayi back for Week 4, which will be important against a Titans defense that's looking surprisingly stout under former Ravens coordinator Dean Pees. The problem for Tennessee is the same as last week: Marcus Mariota's arm injury makes him unable to throw the ball down the field, simplifying the game plan for Eagles defense coordinator, Jim Schwartz.

And here we have the moment of truth. The Dolphins are a surprising 3-0, benefiting from a league lead in interceptions and heavy use of their running game. The Patriots were embarrassed last week, but we've seen time and time again during the Bill Belichick era that the team bounces back from poor performances. Even despite last week's loss, the Patriots are 38-14 against the spread after a loss since 2003.

Did Vegas underestimate the Bills going into their shocking win in Minnesota as 16.5-point underdogs? Maybe. It's notable that head coach Sean McDermott reportedly took over defensive play-calling duties, and rookie quarterback Josh Allen also played well. Aaron Rodgers has been immobile, and the team could need to bench Randall Cobb if he doesn't bounce back from his awful game at Washington. With a one-dimensional offense, Green Bay has really struggled thus far.

The Dallas offense was embarrassed for the second time in three weeks, as its major offensive line and receiver issues have been on full display. Teams will continue to stack the box until the Cowboys show that they have a threat other than Ezekiel Elliott, and the Lions defense is finally taking to new head coach Matt Patricia's system.

Both teams are coming off rough losses. There's particular concern in Atlanta because of all the injuries on defense, but Matt Ryan has put up 30-plus points in consecutive weeks. This should be another high-scoring affair, but the absence of Joe Mixon remains a huge concern for Cincinnati.

Who'd have thought the Browns are now 3-0 against the spread and showed more offense after rookie Baker Mayfield entered the game last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders are experiencing major growing pains under new head coach, Jon Gruden, still failing to score more than 20 points in a game. Gruden is seemingly putting the blame on Derek Carr already, which isn't a great sign.

It's Josh Rosen time in Arizona, though the supporting cast hasn't helped the Cardinals. Still, he couldn't do much worse than the 20 points the team has scored under Sam Bradford through three games. Seattle is 1-2 but has at least kept games close, and the trust in Russell Wilson should be far greater than in the rookie Rosen.

The Saints have had two close victories, showing both that Drew Brees has plenty left in the tank and that their secondary is horrendous again. Now without slot corner Patrick Robinson, the Saints could be in big trouble on the road against Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. The only relief that they will get is tight end Evan Engram's absence due to injury.

San Francisco is one of only two teams that is 0-3 against the spread, and it'll play the rest of the season without Jimmy Garoppolo. Cornerback Richard Sherman is also out for Sunday's game, which is bad timing vs. Keenan Allen and Co. It's not surprising that the 49ers are huge underdogs, but they have a chance to keep the game close if Matt Breida continues to run wild. The team is currently averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with Breida averaging a staggering 8.6 yards per attempt and league-leading 274 total rushing yards.

While Pittsburgh has won the last three matchups between these division foes, the Ravens have covered in two of those contests and four of the last five. Five of the last six games were decided by a touchdown or less, and Pittsburgh has been having issues at kicker with Chris Boswell. 

The Patrick Mahomes train has to stop at some point, right? He currently has 13/0 TD/INT in three games, but the Chiefs have owned Denver recently, winning five straight and covering in each of those contests. They're also 3-0 against the spread this season, covering easily in each one. Denver is the best defense Mahomes has faced this year, but there are simply too many weapons to stop this Chiefs offense, which has averaged 29.6 points per game in the last five head-to-head games.