NFL player prop: Alexander not so great

After several close victories helped them win the NFC North last season, the Vikings opened this campaign with losses in four of their first five games — and all were by a touchdown or less. Minnesota’s chances of returning to the playoffs then took another hit when quarterback Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles, but trade acquisition Joshua Dobbs has kept the ship afloat. Now 6-5 and in position to claim a wild-card spot, the Vikings host the rival Bears to conclude Week 12, and their opponent’s greatest strength factors into our top prop:

The bet: Under 45½ rushing yards for Vikings running back Alexander Mattison (BetMGM)

When Minnesota opted to release four-time 1,000-yard rusher Dalvin Cook, Mattison inherited the role of starting tailback. He had cleared the millennial mark twice as the featured runner at Boise State, but he hadn’t reached 500 yards on the ground in any of his first four pro seasons.

Although Mattison has slogged his way to 542 rushing yards here in 2023, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. He has yet to break off a run of 20 yards, and his only touchdowns have come as a receiver. Prior to last week’s 81-yard outburst against the league-worst run defense of the Broncos, Mattison had stayed under this number in six straight games.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Bears, who allow the least rushing yardage per game and have limited opponents to 3.4 yards per tote. Mattison figures to need a ton of volume to have a productive rushing day, and that’s unlikely after the emergence of backup Ty Chandler, who ran for a career-high 73 yards on just 10 carries last week.

With eight underwhelming games played, Mattison gets the fade.