NFL player prop bets for Week 16 and beyond

It's a big weekend not only for fantasy football owners, but teams like the Minnesota Vikings who are clinging to the NFC's final playoff spot. It wasn't that long ago that Adam Thielen was a weekly prop bet option as he posted eight consecutive 100+-yard receiving performances to start the season. However, over his past six games, the Vikings receiver has averaged a paltry 55 yards per game. The good news is his matchup against Lions cornerback Nevin Lawson is the second-most favorable on Pro Football Focus' WR vs. CB board this week. 

Despite a disastrous rookie campaign, Matt Patricia's job is probably safe in Detroit, which we can't say for every NFL head honcho and that's where we'll kick off our NFL Week 16 Prop Bet rundown.

Odds: Over 78.5 (-120) | Under 78.5 (-120)

In soggy conditions at MetLife Stadium, Derrick Henry rushed a season-high 33 times for 170 yards and two touchdowns. He's now rushed for 170-or-more yards in back-to-back games, but isn't projected to hit the century mark against the Redskins - maybe he should. Washington's defense has allowed four of their past five opponents to rush for 128-or-more yards and has allowed an average of 141.4 rush yards per game during that stretch. I'll buy this Henry prop bet.

The Bet: Over

Odds: Yes (+400) | No (-700)

Speaking of the Redskins, how great is that picture of Adrian Peterson? After both the Giants and Cowboys were shutout last week, all eyes are on Josh Johnson and Washington as thee NFC East team most-likely to post a goose egg in Week 16. The Titans couldn't possibly hold two teams scoreless in back-to-back weeks, right? Plus, Johnson managed an offense that scored 16 points at Jacksonville. Surely, he can lead Washington to a field goal at the very least this Saturday.

The Bet: No

Odds: Jaguars (+240) | Redskins (+220) | Dolphins (+400) | Raiders (+400) | Giants (+550) | Buccaneers (+600)

With a healthy Flacco benched in favor of rookie Lamar Jackson, it appears the Ravens have turned a page at quarterback heading into the 2019 season. The 33-year-old veteran trigger could find a new home via trade or free agency depending how things shake out during the offseason. With Alex Smith's future in doubt following a serious leg injury last month, the Redskins join the Jaguars as the two NFL teams most desperate for a starting quarterback. Based on Jacksonville's current roster with a Leo Fournette run-first offense and fact they were a playoff team just last year, my lean is Flacco packs his bags for warmer temperatures.

The Bet: Jaguars

Odds: Over 255.5 | Under 255.5

The Saints offense has looked out of sync for three consecutive weeks now. What do all of those games have in common? They were on the road. So, Brees returns home where he's averaging 320.6 pass yards per game. Pittsburgh's secondary has allowed 300 pass yards per game the past three weeks. Brees has the advantage in this match-up.

The Bet: Over

Odds: Over 84.5 | Under 84.5

Not only were the Giants shutout by the Titans in Week 15, but Saquon Barkley's Rookie of the Year campaign took a significant hit after he posted just 31 rush yards on 14 carries. It was his first game with fewer than 100 rush yards in more than a month. As was the case against Tennessee, Odell Beckham will miss this week's game at Indianapolis, which will provide Barkley a shot at redemption against a Colts defense that has slowed opposing running back corps the past three weeks. Ezekiel Elliott was held to 87 yards on 18 carries last week and I think we're looking at a similar line for the Giants rookie running back.

The Bet: Over

Odds: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

The Green Bay Packers season has been one to forget. However, lost in all the injuries, team turmoil, and pink slips has been Davante Adams' Pro-Bowl season. The fifth-year receiver out of Fresno State has caught a career-high 100 passes for a career-high 1,315 yards and his next touchdown, number 13, will also set a new career benchmark. He's caught seven-or-more passes in four of his past five games and has a great shot to keep that trend rolling against the Jets this week. Pro Football Focus reports that he has the fifth-most favorable matchup against his opposing cornerback this week.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes (+400) | No (-700)

The Steelers veteran kicker has missed four field goals and one extra point over his past four games. The good news for Boswell is that Week 16's matchup against the Saints is inside their dome and away from any elements that could negatively impact his performance.

The Bet: No (New Orleans wouldn't block an XP, right?)

Odds: Oakland Raiders (-165) | Khalil Mack (+125)

With two games to go, Mack has 12.5 sacks compared to the Raiders' 12 team total. Oakland hosts the Broncos this week and travels to Kansas City to wrap up their season, while Mack faces the 49ers on the road this week before a Week 17 showdown against Minnesota. If the Vikings lose this week, Mack could sit out the finale. However, Denver and Kansas City don't allow a lot sacks per game, which in my opinion gives a slight edge to the clubhouse leader. I'll take my chances with Mack at +125.

The Bet: Mack

Odds: Over 110.5 (-160) | Under 110.5 (+120)

Ertz needs 10 receptions in the next two games to hit the OVER. With games against a soft Texans secondary and Redskins squad ready to waive the white flag come Week 17, I like his chances. He averaged six receptions per game during last season's playoffs with Nick Foles behind center.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +120 | No -160

This picture of Gregg Williams has all the "life comes at you fast" vibes one can offer. Here's why I'm a no on this: bountygate. Despite paying his price in the form of a suspension a few years ago, Williams still has the "bountygate" stain on his resume. With the NFL trying to make the league a safer place and preaching "player safety" at every turn, it's hard to image Williams being promoted to head coach full-time next season.

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes -230 | No +160

I don't understand these futures odds at all. At -230 that "Yes, Marrone will return," oddsmakers believe it's more than likely that the Jaguars will employ the same head coach who just last week allowed an opposing quarterback - making his first start in seven years -beat his team AND practically benched a top-five pick in Leonard Fournette so they could give an undrafted free agent some work in the second half of a close game. This doesn't make sense.

The Bet: No

Odds: Nick Foles (-125) | Dak Prescott (-115)

Tampa Bay's defense is not good, but in recent weeks their secondary has started to show signs of improvement. The Buccaneers have allowed just 200.7 pass yards per game over the past three weeks compared to the Texans who have been torched for 338 pass yards per game over the past month. This favorable matchup falls right into Nick Foles' lap two days before Christmas.

The Bet: Foles

Odds: Over 0.5 (-300) | Under 0.5 (+200)

Is Tom Brady praying? The Patriots may have lost two straight and Josh Gordon to an indefinite suspension, but New England can still earn a first-round BYE and host a playoff game. Their homefield advantage is legit and why Brady can get up and dust himself off. Patriots will not be one and done in this year's playoffs.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes (+1000) | No (-5000)

With come-from-behind wins at Pittsburgh and Kansas City over the past three weeks, the Chargers are playing with fire, but haven't been burned. Now, they're getting healthy with the return of Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen's hip injury not as serious as once feared. It'll be fascinating to see if Philip Rivers can earn his shot at a Super Bowl, but with the way the Chargers win, nothing will be a gimme. On the flip side, the Rams are trending in the wrong direction on the cusp of the playoffs. As they try to right the ship this weekend at Arizona, remember the Rams will likely have to beat the Saints to advance to the Super Bowl this season and with the way New Orleans defense has played in recent weeks, that's what gives them the edge.

The Bet: No